Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts
Friday, October 15, 2010

Super Bowl Fantasy Football Contest Forecast


The end of the football season has arrived, and with it, one final chance to bask in the glory of a fantasy football championship. To help you navigate your team to the title, here is a look at the players involved.

Player 1

- Drew Brees: Brees has thrown six touchdowns without an interception in the postseason, and has averaged 222 passing yards per game. He faces a Colts defense that was 14th in the league against the pass, and 10th in passing scores allowed.

- Peyton Manning: Manning has been his usual highly impressive self in the playoffs, throwing for an average of 311.5 yards per game, with five touchdowns and one interception, numbers that are even more remarkable when you consider the fact that he faced the Jets and Ravens, who were first and seventh, respectively, in the league in pass defense this season. During the regular season, New Orleans was just 26th in the NFL in pass defense, though it should be noted they were third in the league in interceptions.

Player 2

- Joseph Addai: Addai hasn't been a big part of the Colts' offense during the team's playoff run, but that's mostly because he hasn't needed to be. He's rushed for only 107 yards on 27 carries in two games, and caught just four passes for 27 yards and hasn't scored a touchdown. The Saints were just 19th in the league against the run in the regular season, and allowed more touchdowns on the ground than all but three other squads.

- Pierre Thomas: Thomas has run the ball 27 times in New Orleans' two postseason victories, and racked up 113 yards and one touchdown. He's also caught six passes for 56 yards and one score, and though the Colts were 24th in run defense in the regular season, they also allowed fewer rushing scores than all but six other teams.

Player 3

- Marques Colston: Colston was New Orleans' leading receiver in the regular season, and he is tied with Devery Henderson for the team lead in receptions in the playoffs with eight. His 105 receiving yards are just under Henderson's total for the postseason, however, and his one touchdown also trails Henderson's two.

- Reggie Wayne: Wayne was magnificent most of the regular season, but he tailed off in the latter part of the year, and that has carried over to the postseason. Wayne's 11 catches and one touchdown are tied for second on the team, but his 118 receiving yards are third.

Player 4

- Reggie Bush: Bush has scored twice in the playoffs, once on a dazzling run against the Vikings, and one on a reception. For the postseason, he's run the ball 12 times for 92 yards, and caught six passes for 57 yards.

- Dallas Clark: Clark has 11 receptions in the postseason after snaring 100 in the regular season, and though he was second on the team with over 1,100 receiving yards during the regular season, his 94 so far in the playoffs is fourth on the team. He does have one touchdown catch, however.

Player 5

- Austin Collie: Collie leads the Colts with two touchdown grabs in the playoffs, and is second on the team in both catches with 11, and receiving yards, with 175. And despite the great play of Pierre Garcon during the playoffs, don't forget that Collie was third on the Colts in both receptions and touchdown catches in the regular season.

- Pierre Garcon: Garcon is having a fabulous postseason, leading Indianapolis in receptions, with 16, and receiving yards, with 185, while also scoring a touchdown. He may be having the best postseason of any individual player on either squad.

- Robert Meachem: Meachem has done little to establish himself in either of New Orleans' two playoff games, and has only two catches for 19 yards in the postseason. However, his nine touchdown catches in the regular season were good enough to tie him for the team lead with Marques Colston, and he's clearly a boom-or-bust player for this particular fantasy football contest.

Player 6

- Devery Henderson: Henderson has been the most productive Saints receiver so far in the playoffs, and is tied with Marques Colston for the team lead in receptions with eight. However, he leads New Orleans in receiving yards with 119, and touchdown catches, with two.

- Jeremy Shockey: Shockey is battling an injury - as usual - though he has been productive in the playoffs, catching four passes for 45 yards, and one touchdown reception. He will suit up for this game, but his health will likely have a big impact on how productive he will be.

- David Thomas: Thomas had taken advantage of his opportunity to play when Jeremy Shockey was injured in the regular season, and he has a chance to do that again in the Super Bowl. Thomas has caught three passes for 32 yards in New Orleans' two postseason contests, but if Shockey is not able to go all-out, Thomas could be in line for a good day.

Player 7

- Dwight Freeney: Freeney has torn ligaments in his ankle, and he's officially listed as questionable for the game. However, most believe he will attempt to play, though not nearly as much as usual, and maybe only on obvious passing downs.

- Robert Mathis: Mathis has not registered a sack in the postseason, but he was second on the Colts in the regular season with 9.5, and he also led the team with five forced fumbles to go with 37 tackles. However, keep in mind that if Freeney is limited, as expected, New Orleans may concentrate more on stopping Mathis with chip blocks and occasional double teams.

- Will Smith: Smith's 13.0 sacks during the regular season led all Saints players, and he also forced three fumbles and intercepted a pass to go with 49 tackles. He hasn't registered a sack so far in the playoffs, but he does have a forced fumble and interception, along with seven tackles.

Player 8

- Gary Brackett: In the regular season, Brackett was second in tackles for the Colts with 99 stops. He also had one sack and one interception during the year. He leads all Colts defenders in the postseason with 13 tackles, and also has the team's only sack.

- Clint Session: Session was Indianapolis' leading tackler in the regular season, taking down ball carries 103 times. He was productive in other areas as well, picking off two passes, and scoring one of the Colts' two defensive touchdowns. In the playoffs, he is fourth on the team in tackles with 11, but has not done anything else noteworthy.

- Jonathan Vilma: Vilma's 110 tackles in the regular season was tops among Saints players, but he did more than just hit people. The Pro Bowler also intercepted three passes and amassed two sacks. He has amassed just six tackles in the postseason, but he also has a forced fumble and interception.

Player 9

- Antoine Bethea: Bethea was all over the field in the regular season. He was third on the Colts with 95 tackles, but led them with four interceptions and also forced two fumbles. In the Colts' two playoff games, he's made just eight tackles, but also has one of the three interceptions Indy has managed.

- Roman Harper: Harper was second on the Saints in tackles during the regular season with 102, but led them with 10 tackles for loss. He also forced two fumbles and managed 1.5 sacks, though he didn't intercept any passes. So far this postseason, Harper has nine tackles and one forced fumble.

- Darren Sharper: Sharper's 70 tackles in the regular season placed him third on New Orleans' squad, but his contributions to the team's defense went far beyond that. He picked off nine passes, and more remarkably, scored three defensive touchdowns, which was one more than the entire Colts team had. He has 13 tackles so far in the playoffs, which is tied for second on the Saints, but hasn't gathered an interception.

Player 10

- Jabari Greer: Greer made 44 tackles in the regular season, and amassed the second-highest total of passes defended with 13. He also picked off two passes, and scored one defensive touchdown. So far in the playoffs, Greer has made 10 tackles and leads the team with three passes defended.

- Jacob Lacey: Lacey was fourth on Indianapolis' team with 85 tackles during the regular season, which is impressive considering he's a cornerback. He also led the team with 13 passes defended, and was second with three interceptions and scored one of their two defensive touchdowns. Lacey's 11 postseason tackles are tied for fourth on the Colts, and 10 of them have been solo stops, which is tied for second-most.

- Tracy Porter: Porter made 57 tackles in the regular season, but was around the ball a lot, forcing two fumbles, and snatching four interceptions, which was second on the team. He also scored a defensive touchdown. Porter also made the interception of Brett Favre in the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship game, and is tied for second on the team with 13 tackles, not to mention one forced fumble.

Kicker

- Garrett Hartley: Hartley has only hit two field goals in the postseason, but both were between 40-49 yards, including the game-winning 40-yarder in overtime of the NFC Championship game. He's also hit all 10 of his extra-point tries.

- Matt Stover: Stover has nailed each of the five field goals he's attempted this postseason, and they've come from varying distances. His boots have come from 19, 21, 25, 33 and 44 yards. Stover has also connected on each of his five extra-point attempts.

Teams

- Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints: Picking the winner will net you 20 points in the contest, so go with your instincts. If it's any help, the Colts are favored by a decent margin, between five and six points depending on where you look. But, if you're playing a Super Bowl fantasy football contest, you undoubtedly already knew that, didn't you?









Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Fantasy Football 1-Week Frenzy Forecast


Just when you think you have this whole fantasy football thing figured out, last week happens. How else do you explain Tom Brady going from playing at a Super Bowl level to playing at a Pop Warner level, or Vincent Jackson breaking the hearts of every fantasy enthusiast who put him in their lineups? Alas, we are still here to do our part to help you put together the best lineup possible.

Quarterbacks 1

1) Peyton Manning (vs. Tennessee): Manning has a great match-up this week against the Titans, who he beat for 36 completions, 309 yards and three touchdowns back in Week 5, and who are second to last in pass defense and passing scores allowed. And yes, we know they've won their past five games, but in that time they've faced three teams currently in the bottom half of the league in passing offense and one team playing with a backup quarterback.

2) Tom Brady (@ Miami): A total of 237 passing yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions last week are shocking totals for Brady, especially considering that he was in the midst of a string of five consecutive 300-yard passing games. But a bounce back this week is very possible against a Miami pass defense that is 23rd in the league, and one that he threw for 310 yards and one score against in Week 9.

3) Drew Brees (@ Washington): Although no one can be blamed for using Brees this week, match-ups matter, and Washington has the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL. Only three opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 200 yards against the Redskins this season, and it's happened just once over their last eight games. And it's not as if Brees is immune to quality pass defenses - three times this season he's been held to fewer than 200 passing yards.

4) Matt Schaub (@ Jacksonville): Schaub is a great choice in any fantasy football scoring format, but considering the amount of completions he racks up, he's an especially good option in this one. He's third in the league in overall completions, and has at least 25 in each of his last four games. Jacksonville is 26th in the league in pass defense, and only six teams have allowed more touchdown passes than they have. In his last meeting with the Jags, back in Week 3, Schaub threw for 300 yards with three scores.

5) Philip Rivers (@ Cleveland): Rivers is quietly putting together a very good season, and has an impressive three-game stretch going where he hasn't thrown an interception and has completed at least 75 percent of his passes. Cleveland's horrible pass defense shouldn't offer him a great challenge.

6) Kurt Warner (vs. Minnesota): Though there's optimism surrounding his chances to play this week (concussion), and his match-up is a solid one, there's always a chance he doesn't play at all or gets knocked out of the competition.

Quarterbacks 2

1) Brett Favre (@ Arizona): Favre has been nothing short of remarkable this season, with an unheard of 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio (24 touchdown throws, three interceptions). Over his last four games, he has thrown 12 touchdowns and hasn't thrown an interception. Against the Cardinals, he should be golden; only three teams allow more passing yards per game than they do.

2) Aaron Rodgers (vs. Baltimore): Rodgers has thrown 14 touchdowns over his last six games, and just three interceptions, and all of those picks came in one contest. In his last two contests he's thrown for over 340 yards in each, and he's completed at least 25 passes in each of his last three games. Baltimore is in the top half of the league in pass defense, but they're not so imposing that you shouldn't consider using Rodgers.

3) Donovan McNabb (@ Atlanta): McNabb has had some very ordinary games of late, and over his last five contests, he's thrown six touchdowns and five interceptions. Though McNabb could very likely be without top receiver DeSean Jackson, he's still a solid option this week because his opponent, Atlanta, is putrid against the pass, ranking 27th in the league in that category and 22nd in passing touchdowns given up.

4) Carson Palmer (vs. Detroit): Palmer isn't putting up numbers like we've seen him do in the past, and in fact hasn't completed more than 20 passes in his last five games, but he's playing Detroit this week. The same Detroit that is dead last in pass defense, and who has allowed more touchdown passes than any team in the NFL.

5) Tony Romo (@ NY Giants): Romo has had a solid season overall, and is seventh in the league in passing yards, ahead of the likes of Brett Favre and Kurt Warner. Yet he hasn't completed more than 20 passes in either of his last two games, and the last time he faced the Giants, he threw for a season-low 127 yards with three interceptions and one score.

6) Ben Roethlisberger (vs. Oakland): Big Ben will suit up this week after sitting out last week's contest against the Ravens with concussion symptoms. This led to some controversy, at least within the Steelers' locker room, but that has since died down. Roethlisberger does have a tough individual match-up this week against Oakland, however; only four teams have allowed fewer touchdown passes than they have.

Quarterbacks 3

1) Joe Flacco (@ Green Bay): IFlacco seemed to have been mired in a slump in Weeks 8-11. He threw for over 200 yards just once in those games, and tossed just one touchdown and three interceptions. But he rallied last week, throwing for nearly 300 yards with one score and no picks, and though his opponent this week, the Packers, are sixth in the NFL in pass defense, only three teams have allowed more touchdown passes than they have.

2) Jay Cutler (vs. St. Louis): Since interceptions aren't a worry in this scoring format, Cutler's transgressions in that area needn't play a role in deciding whether to put him in your lineup, especially against a soft pass defense like the Rams possess. But his confidence does seem to be wavering, and he hasn't thrown for even 175 yards in either of his past two games, and in his past three games he's thrown a total of two touchdowns and eight picks.

3) Vince Young (@ Indianapolis): Young was simply spectacular last week, but don't let that cloud your judgment for his game at Indy this week. He was facing an atrocious pass defense in the Cardinals last week, and the Colts are a much more formidable foe, especially with Young playing on the road. Also, only the Jets have given up fewer touchdown passes than they have.

4) Matt Cassel (vs. Denver): After a truly mediocre start, Cassel seems to have found his footing a bit. He's thrown for 215 or more yards in three of his last four contests, along with five touchdowns and two interceptions during that time. It should also be noted that he'll give you at least a few points running the ball - he's had at least four rushing attempts in seven of his 10 games this year.

5) Matt Hasselbeck (vs. San Francisco): Fantasy football players are justifiably baffled by Hasselbeck, who went from throwing for 315 yards against Arizona three weeks ago to accumulating just 102 passing yards last week against the Rams. He's at home against the 49ers this week, and San Francisco is just 28th in the NFL in pass defense, but it's too difficult to trust Hasselbeck.

6) David Garrard (vs. Houston): Garrard simply doesn't thrown enough touchdowns to be a viable fantasy football option; among the 24 NFL quarterbacks with at least 280 pass attempts, he is tied with Jake Delhomme for the fewest touchdown passes, having thrown only eight.

Quarterbacks 4

1) Kyle Orton (@ Kansas City): Orton's season has been solid, if unspectacular. He's thrown for more than 250 yards just once this season, and over his last five games has just three touchdown passes, but you can't ignore who his opponent is this week - only two other teams allow more passing yards per game than the Chiefs.

2) Alex Smith (@ Seattle): Smith's career has been resurrected this season, and fantasy football enthusiasts have taken note. They should again this week as he matches up with the Seahawks, a team that is 25th in the league in pass defense and 27th in passing scores allowed.

3) Eli Manning (vs. Dallas): The last time Manning went up against the Cowboys, he blistered them for 330 yards and two scores, though you should take into account that that game was played back in Week 2. Manning is highly inconsistent and is also playing on a bad foot, so while his match-up is solid, can you really count on him?

4) Jason Campbell (@ Philadelphia): Campbell hasn't been a great quarterback this season, but his numbers haven't been atrocious, either. He's thrown for at least one touchdown in all but three games this year, and the last time he faced Philly, he had a season-high 29 completions, along with 284 yards and two scores.

5) Josh Freeman (@ Carolina): Freeman is getting plenty of accolades, and he's performed admirably in a couple games, but you'll probably want to avoid him this week. The Panthers have the No. 3 pass defense in the league, and are ninth in passing scores allowed.

6) Brady Quinn (vs. San Diego): Simply ignore Quinn.

Running Backs 1

1) Chris Johnson (@ Indianapolis): Johnson has been on a run that's as remarkable as anything the NFL or fantasy football has seen in some time. In his last six games, he's averaged 155 rushing yards on 23 carries (6.7 ypc), just over one touchdown (he has seven total in that span), and close to three receptions and 30 receiving yards per game.

2) Adrian Peterson (@ Arizona): Despite having only three games with at least 100 rushing yards, Peterson is still playing very well. He has 12 touchdowns in 11 games, and has already established a career-high with 27 receptions. Arizona has been killed on the ground of late, giving up 115 or more yards to an individual runner in four of their past five games.

3) Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. Houston): MJD has scored three rushing touchdowns in a game on two occasions this season, and one of them happened to be against the Texans, back in Week 3. He also caught four passes in that contest, one of seven times he's had at least that many receptions in a game. He's always an excellent option.

4) Rashard Mendenhall (vs. Oakland): No team has allowed more rushing yards to opposing running backs than the Raiders have, and only two teams have allowed opposing backs to score more touchdowns.

5) Steven Jackson (@ Chicago): Like Philip Rivers at quarterback, Jackson is quietly having an excellent season, though you can hardly blame anyone for not noticing that Jackson is the NFL's second-leading rusher because he's on a team that has won just one game. Nonetheless, he's always valuable in this scoring format not only because of the yards he piles up, but because of the amount of touches he receives.

6) Frank Gore (@ Seattle): Gore is always solid, but compared to the rest of this group, he doesn't get enough touches. He's carried the ball more than 16 times just twice all season, and has just 92 rushing yards over his past two games.

Running Backs 2

1) DeAngelo Williams (vs. Tampa Bay): Before last week's 40-yard performance, Williams had been averaging 127 yards over his previous six games. But he should come back with aplomb this week against a Tampa team that is 30th in the league in run defense, and against whom Williams had 152 yards and two scores against in Week 6.

2) Ray Rice (@ Green Bay): Over his last eight games, Rice has run for at least 70 yards six times (with one 69-yard effort), and has caught fewer than five passes just once. With receptions being three points each, that kind of production is highly valuable.

3) Ricky Williams (vs. New England): Williams has at least 20 carries, 100 yards and one touchdown in each of his three games since taking over for the injured Ronnie Brown in Miami. New England is tied for fewest rushing scores allowed, having given up just three all season, but one of the backs who found the end zone against them happened to be Williams.

4) Knowshon Moreno (@ Kansas City): Moreno has run for at least 80 yards in each of his past three games, and has a fantastic match-up this week against the Chiefs, who are 27th against the run and 22nd in rushing scores allowed.

5) Cedric Benson (vs. Detroit): Benson has missed two contests with a hip injury, but he's supposed to be back in the starting lineup this week. But Larry Johnson did a solid job filling in last week, and they may not want to overdo it with Benson this week.

6) Joseph Addai (vs. Tennessee): Addai simply is not putting up the numbers the other backs in this group have been; he's only run for 70 or more yards once all season, and has not carried the ball more than 20 times in any game.

Running Backs 3

1) LaDainian Tomlinson (@ Cleveland): Tomlinson has scored five times in his last three games, making up for otherwise ordinary numbers. He's not catching the ball like he used to (three receptions over his last five games), and he's run for at least 75 yards just once this year. But only three teams have allowed more rushing yards than the Browns, and only two teams have given up more rushing scores to opposing running backs.

2) Matt Forte (vs. St. Louis): Only the Bills have allowed more rushing scores to opposing running backs than St. Louis has, and if this were last season, Forte would be No. 1 on this list. As it is, he's struggling mightily this year running the ball. One thing that should be considered in this scoring format - he has averaged over five receptions per game in his last four contests.

3) Laurence Maroney (@ Miami): Over his last six games, Maroney has scored eight times, accounting for all of his touchdowns this season. Unfortunately, he also has lost a fumble in three consecutive games, and any more could mean fewer carries for him.

4) Kevin Smith (@ Cincinnati): Smith hasn't gained 70 or more rushing yards in eight games, and the Bengals are the No. 3-ranked rush defense in the league. The only thing saving him from being ranked last on this list is his ability to catch the ball.

5) Ryan Grant (vs. Baltimore): No doubt Grant has had a solid year, but a lot of things are working against him - Baltimore is seventh in run defense and allows the fewest yards per carry in the league, he doesn't catch the ball with regularity, and he sat out a practice this week with a stinger.

6) Tim Hightower (vs. Minnesota): Not only is Hightower going to lose more and more playing time to Beanie Wells, but he's going up against the team that is second in the NFL in run defense, and the team that is tied in allowing the fewest rushing scores in the league.

Running Backs 4

1) LeSean McCoy (@ Atlanta): Brian Westbrook remains out, and DeSean Jackson is likely to be sidelined as well, leaving McCoy to be an even bigger piece of the puzzle this week. Atlanta's defense is sub-par in every area, and they are just 23rd in the league against the run. Something else to note - only one team has given up more receiving touchdowns to running backs than the Falcons have.

2) Jamaal Charles (vs. Denver): Charles has scored a rushing or receiving touchdown in each of his last three games since taking over after Larry Johnson was cut. He's an explosive player who makes things happen, and now that he's getting an opportunity, he's making the most of it.

3) Cadillac Williams (@ Carolina): The Caddy has a very good match-up against the 26th-ranked Panthers run defense, and it is one he gained 77 yards and scored a touchdown against back in Week 6, but he's also done very little since then. He hasn't rushed for even 60 yards in his past five games, or run for over 3.7 yards per carry.

4) Pierre Thomas (@ Washington): If only he were the clear-cut No. 1. As it is, he shares time with a couple other running backs, and though he's productive with the carries he does get, he really doesn't get enough looks to put up the big numbers he might be able to elsewhere.

5) Steve Slaton (@ Jacksonville): The Texans are still having trust issues with Slaton due to his previous fumbleitis, and he's dealing with a neck malady, so we'll have to see how many touches he gets, and until then, it's not safe to trust him.

6) Beanie Wells (vs. Minnesota): Leave Wells on the bench against one of the best run defenses in the NFL.

Wide Receivers 1

1) Wes Welker (@ Miami): With only six catches for 32 yards, Welker had his worst game of the season last week. He'll right the ship this week against a Miami team that he burned for nine catches and 84 yards in Week 9. Welker leads the NFL in catches, even though he missed two weeks, and with receptions at three points each, you can't go wrong using him.

2) Reggie Wayne (vs. Tennessee): The man with the second-most catches this season is Wayne, and his match-up is beautiful. No team has allowed opposing wideouts to catch more passes or score more touchdowns, and they've also allowed opposing receivers to accumulate the second-most receiving yards (by one yard). Wayne had six catches for 60 yards and one score against the Titans in Week 5.

3) Andre Johnson (@ Jacksonville): Only three teams have given up more receiving yards and receiving scores than the Jaguars have, and Johnson is the perfect person to exploit that weakness. He had four catches for 86 yards against them back in Week 3.

4) Randy Moss (@ Miami): Moss leads the league in receiving yards, but you wouldn't know that by the way he's played the last two weeks. He's accumulated only 101 yards combined in those two games, though a reprieve could very much be in the works this week - he blistered the Dolphins for 147 yards on six receptions (including one touchdown) when he first met them in Week 9.

5) Chad Ochocinco (vs. Detroit): The Ocho has stunk over his last five games, with no more than five receptions in any of them, and not one contest of even 70 receiving yards. Yet he plays the Lions this week, and he can easily fatten up on them - they're dead last in pass defense and have passing touchdowns allowed.

6) Larry Fitzgerald (vs. Minnesota): If Kurt Warner plays, Fitzgerald should be moved up in the rankings, but if noodle-armed Matt Leinart goes again, there are too many other receivers in this group to choose from who have Pro Bowl quarterbacks throwing to them.

Wide Receivers 2

1) Vincent Jackson (@ Cleveland): Jackson's disappearance over the last three games has been troubling. He hasn't scored since in that time, and he's accumulated a total of seven catches and 93 yards. But he has to bust out of it at some point, and it would be no shock if he did so against the terrifically awful Browns.

2) Mike Sims-Walker (vs. Houston): Three times in his past five games, Sims-Walker has accumulated fewer than 50 receiving yards, but he has scored three times in that span, easing the pain that was inflicted by his lack of yards. In his last game against the Texans, in Week 3, he had six catches for 81 yards.

3)Roddy White (vs. Philadelphia): White has not been as productive this season as he was last year in terms of yardage, and if he hadn't been scoring so many touchdowns, he would be a real disappointment. Yet he does have seven on the season, and he scored last week for the first time in three games.

4) Marques Colston (@ Washington): Colston caught one of Drew Brees' five touchdown passes last week, which was one of his four receptions and 121 yards. It was his first score in three weeks, but don't be too confident he can repeat that feat this week. The Redskins have allowed the second-fewest catches by opposing wide receivers.

5) Anquan Boldin (vs. Minnesota): Boldin is, surprisingly, not among the top-25 players in receiving yards, and possibly even more surprisingly, has just two touchdown catches this season. He was starting to play better before Kurt Warner went out, and if Warner does play this week, Boldin is a much more viable option than if the weak left arm of Matt Leinart has to play.

6) Steve Smith (CAR) (vs. Tampa Bay): He had one reception for five yards last week. Five yards! Jake Delhomme is likely out, and though that's probably a good thing in the long run, it means the Panthers will simply rely more on the running game than usual this week.

Wide Receivers 3

1) Brandon Marshall (@ Kansas City): Just four teams have allowed more yards to opposing wide receivers than the Chiefs have, and Marshall typically destroys soft defenses. In two games against the Chiefs last season, he had 18 catches for 168 yards and three touchdowns.

2) Steve Smith (NYG) (vs. Dallas): After a bit of a three-game lull, Smith is back to catching oodles of passes. He's amassed seven or more receptions in three of his last four games, and has 65 or more yards in four of his last five games. And the last time he faced Dallas, he went ballistic, scoring once on one of his 10 receptions for 134 yards.

3) Santonio Holmes (vs. Oakland): Holmes finally did something that his fantasy owners have been waiting for since Week 1 - he scored his second touchdown of the season last week! Holmes has actually been playing very well of late, and that finally paid off. He has had at least six receptions and 74 receiving yards in each of his last four games.

4) Pierre Garcon (vs. Tennessee): Garcon is clearly the No. 2 man behind Reggie Wayne on the wideout depth chart in Indy. He had five receptions for 63 yards and one touchdown last week, and has at least 50 receiving yards in each of his last five games.

5) Robert Meachem (@ Washington): What hurts Meachem in this scoring format are his lack of receptions. And he also has a tough match-up this week, going up against the No. 1-ranked pass defense of the Redskins.

6) T.J. Houshmandzadeh (vs. San Francisco): If he can't get it done against the Rams, who can he get it done against? He's been a fantasy football bust all season.

Wide Receivers 4

1) Sidney Rice (@ Arizona): Of the top 15 players in terms of receiving yards, only Miles Austin is averaging more yards per reception than Rice's 17.2, a number that has catapulted Rice to third in the league in receiving yards despite just 56 receptions.

2) Derrick Mason (@ Green Bay): Mason has now had three very productive games in a row after his seven-catch, 62-yard, one touchdown performance last week against the Steelers. His opponent this week, the Packers, are sixth in the league in pass defense, but have also allowed more touchdown passes than all but three other teams.

3) Nate Burleson (vs. San Francisco): Burleson came up very short last week against the Rams, a team he should have torched. He managed just four receptions for 46 yards against a bad pass defense, and he failed to score for the sixth straight game. Burleson has a solid match-up against the 49ers, who are 28th in the NFL in pass defense.

4) Hines Ward (vs. Oakland): Ward apologized after being critical of Ben Roethlisberger last week after Big Ben didn't play due to a concussion. He insists there are no lingering hard feelings among the two, which is good, because that means Ward can go back to being one of the most productive wideouts in the NFL.

5) Santana Moss (@ Philadelphia): He's far too unreliable. There are much better options in this group.

6) Braylon Edwards (@ Buffalo): Edwards should not be used.

Wide Receivers 5

1) Calvin Johnson (@ Cincinnati): If you're going to take a chance on Megatron, now is as good a time as ever. He only caught two passes for 10 yards last week, but he did score a touchdown for the second straight week, and also has at least five receptions in five of the nine games he's played this season.

2) Percy Harvin (@ Arizona): Harvin's best game as a pro came last week, as he caught a touchdown for the second week in a row while setting career-highs in receptions (six), receiving yards (101) and rushing yards (45). Against the Cardinals' 30th-ranked pass defense, more career-highs are possible.

3) Donald Driver (vs. Baltimore): Driver tore up the Lions on Thanksgiving and has had a nice layoff since then to rest his 34-year-old body. He's only caught fewer than four passes in a game just one time this season, and has scored in three of his last six contests.

4) Devin Hester (vs. St. Louis): Hester is in a big-time slump, and although the Rams can break any offensive player out of their malaise, his inconsistency should be worrisome. Hester has only 86 receiving yards in his last three games.

5) Donnie Avery (@ Chicago): Avery plays in an inconsistent offense with a quarterback that is named Kyle Boller. Probably best to avoid him.

6) Greg Jennings (vs. Baltimore): He's being outplayed by his teammate, the far more consistent Donald Driver.

Tight Ends 1

1) Tony Gonzalez (vs. Philadelphia): No team has allowed opposing tight ends to catch more passes than Philly has, and only one team has allowed more receiving yards and touchdowns to players at that position. Even with Matt Ryan sidelined, Gonzalez should not be penalized.

2) Dallas Clark (vs. Tennessee): Clark, who has caught a touchdown in two straight games, last played the Titans in Week 5, a game in which he caught nine passes for 77 yards. He's caught seven or more passes in seven of his 11 games this season, and that can add up to huge points in this scoring format.

3) Antonio Gates (@ Cleveland): Only six teams have allowed more touchdown passes to opposing tight ends then Cleveland, and Gates recently broke out of a funk last week against the Chiefs, catching seven balls for 118 yards and two scores.

4) Vernon Davis (@ Seattle): When Alex Smith made the transition to starting quarterback, he undoubtedly wanted to get his tight end involved. That's most certainly happened, as Davis has had at least one touchdown reception or 100 receiving yards (or both) in all but one of the six games the 49ers have played since Smith took over.

5) Jason Witten (@ NY Giants): Witten had his first 100-yard game of the season last week, and it was a long time coming for the preseason No. 1 fantasy football tight end. He has been consistent in catching the ball this season, catching exactly five passes in each of his last three games, and he doesn't have fewer than four receptions in any contest this year.

6) Visanthe Shiancoe (@ Arizona): Over his last eight games, Shiancoe has scored seven times. That's a great number, but within the context of this group of tight ends, he's not the top option on his team the way the other players here are.

Tight Ends 2

1) Brent Celek (@ Atlanta): Celek just signed a $33 million extension, and is certainly facing the right opponent in which to do prove he deserves that contract. Atlanta has allowed opposing tight ends to catch more passes than all but four other squads, and only three teams have allowed opposing tight ends to gain more receiving yards.

2) Greg Olsen (vs. St. Louis): Olsen is a solid play each week due to the fact that the Bears have a dearth of options at the receiver position, and the Rams have certainly been beaten by opposing tight ends before.

3) Kellen Winslow (@ Carolina): Winslow managed only 29 yards on three receptions the last time he squared off against the Panthers, but with rookie quarterback Josh Freeman at the helm, the situation is different this time around.

4) Zach Miller (Oakland Raiders): Bruce Gradkowski has really been beneficial to Miller - after little production over most of the season, he's combined for 10 receptions and 136 yards the last two weeks.

5) John Carlson (vs. San Francisco): With six catches for 46 yards in Week 2, one of Carlson's most productive games of the season came against San Francisco. That statistic alone should tell you how disappointing he's been this season.

6) Heath Miller (vs. Oakland): Despite how bad Oakland is, they completely shut down opposing tight ends - they are one of just two teams not to have allowed a touchdown reception by someone at that position.









Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Week 15 2009 Fantasy Fortunes Top 50 Fantasy Football Year to End Rankings

The following rankings are based on a fantasy football player's year to end season value. If a draft or auction were to occur today this is the rank and value we place on the players based on their past performance and predicted future production. The basis for the valuations is a 10 team league starting 1 QB 2 RB 2 WR 1 TE 1 K 1 Defense with a 50% yardage and 50% TD scoring system with no points awarded for receptions. The rankings are updated every Tuesday morning, allowing players to value their teams, analyze player values for trades and plan future moves to get the most return out of your Fantasy Football players.


1 Chris Johnson Titans, RB
The love child of Jar Jar Binks and Whoopi Goldberg keeps racking up points. Great playoff schedule. $43


2 Adrian Peterson
Vikings, RB He has racked up 1519 total yards and 14 tds (tied for rushing TD lead) and apparently can grow lizard skin at will. $38


3 Maurice Jones-Drew
Jaguars, RB What Would Jones Drew? Should bring home some fantasy hardware for teams. $37


4 Ray Rice Ravens, RB
He's a top 5 guy and we get the feeling he's only scratching the surface of his potential....if only he was featured more in their offense. $35


5 Cedric Benson Bengals, RB
With his hips healthy again he should be dancing back to early season form. Almost hung a hundo on the stout Vikes run D. $28


6 Ricky Williams Miami, RB
Ever since Crockett got hurt, Tubs has taken over. Look for Miami Vice solo act Ricky "Tubs" Williams to deliver the goods championship week, against the Texans. $28


7 Steven Jackson Rams, RB


4 TD's on the year is hard to forgive. But, with 2 good playoff matchups he could redeem himself. $25


8 Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals, WR
If old man Warner can keep it together his playoff matchups look incredible..... @DET then home vs STL. Pending results of Monday Night Injury. $25


9 Ryan Grant Packers, RB
Tough 1st playoff game vs PIT. He and Packers are surging though, we are believers. $24


10 DeAngelo Williams Panthers, RB
After last years fantasy playoff run, you gotta have him in your line up. $23


11 Andre Johnson Texans,WR
He and Schaub are clicking... Rams and Dolphins make for a good playoff schedule. $22


12 Thomas Jones Jets, RB
If you seek flashy highlight reel TD replays, go elsewhere, but if you like reliable production, you've come to the right place. $21


13 Aaron Rodgers Packers,QB
Now that he is getting the playground approved 5 banana count from his O-line, he is looking better than ever. Topping the charts in most scoring formats. $21


14 Drew Brees Saints, QB
If you're a Brees owner your rooting for one of two options; Saints try to go undefeated or the start losing.... either scenario keeps him on the field. $20


15 Anquan Boldin Cardinals,WR
This won't be the last time you hear this at this site, the Cardinals fantasy playoff schedule is as good as it gets. $20


16 Randy Moss Patriots, WR
Giving body language like he's starting to check out mentally for the season, on the other hand a strong finish would not surprise us. Tough read. $19


17 Rashard Mendenhall Steelers, RB
Despite killing owners with his recent performance against CLE, he remains a strong option going forward. $19


18 DeSean Jackson Eagles, WR
Seems to be clear of the concussion. He doesn't get a ton of receptions, but 18.9 yds/catch is tops in the league (of relevant WR's)....and he returns the occasional punt for 6 as well. $19


19 Frank Gore 49ers, RB
What happened to running 3 times and then punting? Obviously, the 49ers are better off with their new pass first offense, but that is not sitting well with Gore owners. $17


20 Jamaal Charles Chiefs, RB
He's been red hot since taking over the starting role. Chiefs are not a high powered an offense, but he is getting it done on his end. $17


21 Brandon Marshall Broncos, WR
Just set the single game NFL reception record (21) and looks to be hitting his stride, rewarding owners who stuck with him. $17


22 Joesph Addai Colts, RB
Quietly having a really nice season. He has pressed the pause button on the Donald Brown era for now. $17


23 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers, RB
He's been surprisingly consistent since coming back from injury early in the year. $16


24 Wes Welker Patriots, WR
The league leader in Receptions (105) and second in yardage (1158) gives you week in week out consistent production, any TD's are just icing on the cake. $16


25 Vincent Jackson Chargers, WR
Is to San Diego WR's what MadMen is to AMC.....both have made something completely irrelevant worth watching now. $16


26 Kurt Warner Cardinals, QB
The old man has two great matchups to bring home fantasy championships; @DET then home vs STL. $15


27 Miles Austin Cowboys,WR
Blind Melon, The Proclaimers, Chumbawumba and Hanson want to know his secret for multiple hit success. $14


28 Sidney Rice Vikings, WR
Having the prototypical wide receiver 3rd year breakout season. Expecting even bigger things next year. $14


29 Chad Ochocinco Bengals,WR
Typical streaky season for Chad OchoTweets. Faces 10th (SD) and 24th (KC) ranked pass defenses weeks 15 & 16. $14


30 Calvin Johnson Lions, WR
Looking more like a 'second tier' transforming machine to robot action figure of the 80's......Gobot in disguise! $13


31 Pierre Thomas Saints, RB
He plays Suzanne Summers in the Saints aggravating Three's Company sitcom. He is the hottest by far, yet Mike Bell in the role of the butch brunette gets far too much screen time $12


32 Matt Schaub Texans, QB
He has been a house of fire all season. Faces STL (19th) and MIA (22nd) next two weeks. $12


33 Phillip Rivers Chargers, QB
The main reason the Chargers have won 8 straight. Model of consistency; never scored more than 23 or less than 9. $11


34 Tom Brady Patriots, QB
Everyone in the AFC is rooting for a colicky Brady baby to hamper his production. $11


35 Brandon Jacobs Giants, RB
Like B Jacobs....as much as everyone likes the Cool Asian guy with the twirling kicks in Karate Kid, at the All Valley Tourney, maybe it's just time to admit he's not quite as good as we'd like him to be. $11


36 Steve Smith Giants, WR
Nothing too flashy here, just a consistent 75 yds/game and a TD mixed in every few. $10


37 Peyton Manning Colts, QB
Will you get more than 2 quarters of production out of him? If he's playing for the perfect season, we think so. $10


38 Mike Sims-Walker Jaguars, WR
Having a solid year for the Jaguar-Leopards. As long as he's healthy he could finish very strong. $9


39 Vernon Davis 49ers, TE
A monster who probably deserves to be higher. He'll be spending his off-season lobbying for equal treatment of Tight Ends. $9


40 Kevin Smith Lions, RB
Fairly consistent for such a bad offense. Hope for 8 points, anything more is gravy. $8


41 Roddy White Falcons, WR
247 yds and 2 scores in the last 4 games, not setting the world ablaze, but a strong #2 WR. $8


42 Michael Turner Falcons, RB
The Burner......if last year he was fueled by petroleum products......this year he's apparently switched to "easy bake oven" technology. $8


43 Antonio Gates Chargers, TE
Slow start, but coming on strong. He's delivered fantasy championships before, in Gates we trust. $8


44 Reggie Wayne Colts, WR
Hasn't gone over 50 yds in the last three weeks, cutting his owners deep......I'm talking like BJ Penn cutting Diego Sanchez's forehead with a head kick deep. $7


45 Marion Barber Cowboys, RB
716 yds and 4 TD's on the year....he's on the list based on potential, not for past performance. $7


46 Marques Colston Saints, WR
Marques, along with posse; Shonne, Toni, Geoff, and Alicks frequent the island of misfit name spellers. $7


47 Quinton Ganther Redskins, RB
Shined in his first start against the Raiders, now let's see how he does vs an NFL team. $7


48 Fred Jackson Bills, RB
Every other week streak means, bench next week, cash in on championship game pending your options. $7


49 Beanie Wells Cardinals, RB
Received the bulk of the carries in the Monday night game vs SF. If he continues to get the lion's share of the work, he has plenty of upside with the aforementioned AZ playoff schedule. $7


50 Greg Jennings Packers, WR
His reversal of fortune this season rivals only that of an amateur competitive eater; one minute focused and poised for a Coney Island Championship, the next he's got semi-digested wet hot dogs & buns all over his shoes. $7


http://www.FantasyFortunes.com A fantasy football site which does a weekly humor based top 50 ranking of year to end values for players in the nfl.

Monday, October 11, 2010

Fantasy Football Playoff Challenge Forecast


The NFL's regular season is over, but the fantasy football season continues. Hopefully your fantasy football team was successful this season, but if not, one more chance for redemption awaits you. And even if you tasted success, and won your league, the playoffs allow you one more opportunity for fantasy football glory. And to help you achieve that exaltation, here are our player rankings.

Player 1
1) Peyton Manning: Despite playing less than a full game in each of his final two contests, Manning was second in the NFL in completions, completion percentage, passing yards and passing touchdowns (tied with Brett Favre). All that and his team was working on an undefeated season before essentially forfeiting their final two games.

2) Drew Brees: Brees set the NFL record for single-season completion percentage and led the NFL with 34 touchdown passes despite sitting out Week 17. If you believe the Saints' late-season struggles were just a blip on the radar, Brees is an excellent option.

3) Philip Rivers: Rivers never seems to get mentioned when the top quarterbacks in the league are mentioned, but fantasy football enthusiasts know plenty about him. His 104.4 quarterback rating for the season was third in the league, and he was in the top-10 in both passing yards and touchdown throws.

4) Tony Romo: Romo had a great season, coming in third in the NFL in passing yards, and he happens to be playing his best football right now. Dallas is the No. 3 seed in the NFC, and many pundits like them to make a run at the Super Bowl.

5) Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers was fourth in passing yards, passing scores and quarterback rating for this season, so there's no doubt he is one of the best in the game. Green Bay is the fifth seed as well, which means it's unlikely they'd be playing any home games. He's the ultimate boom-or-bust candidate in this group.

6) Brett Favre: Favre had a remarkable year in every way, and he ended the regular season with a flourish. You have to wonder, however, if the Vikings will gear up the running game more in the playoffs than they did towards the end of the regular season.

Player 2
1) Kurt Warner: We all saw what Warner could do last season if he got hot in the playoffs, and despite the Cards getting waxed by the Packers last week, it didn't seem like they gave their full effort, did it?

2) Donovan McNabb: McNabb was worse than his pedestrian numbers (20-of-36, no touchdowns, no interceptions) indicated last week against the Cowboys, as he missed a number of open receivers. That and the fact that Philly is the No. 6 seed in the NFC will lead some to be pessimistic about him for a postseason fantasy football run, but remember that Philly had won six in a row, and McNabb has led his team on a number of deep playoff runs.

3) Tom Brady: While we certainly believe the Patriots can make an extended playoff run, Brady is dealing with a plethora of problems. First and foremost are his busted bones - he reportedly has three cracked ribs and a broken index finger on his right (throwing) hand. Not to mention the fact that Brady has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three of his last four games, and his leading pass-catcher, Wes Welker, tore up his knee and will miss the playoffs.

4) Joe Flacco: If you're looking for a sleeper candidate, Flacco may be your man. He doesn't put up huge numbers, but the Ravens have the running game and defense necessary to allow them to make an extended push in the playoffs, with Flacco doing enough to give you decent fantasy points along the way.

5) Carson Palmer: Really, Palmer and Mark Sanchez should be 6A and 6B, as neither is much of an option. Palmer was horrendous against the Jets last week, completing one of his 11 throws, for zero yards. New York is No. 1 in the NFL against the pass, but even if Cincy does beat them, Palmer won't give you much.

6) Mark Sanchez: Sanchez is the poorest passer among quarterbacks whose teams made it to the playoffs, and he should be treated as such here. Even a Super Bowl run for him may not produce equal numbers equal to two games from other quarterbacks in the playoffs.

Player 3
1) Adrian Peterson: Peterson led the NFL in rushing scores, and despite the fact he didn't have a 100-yard rushing game in the playoffs, his fantasy football value is beyond doubt, and there's reason to think that if the Vikings advance to the Super Bowl, he'll have a lot to do with it.

2) Ray Rice: Rice has huge value in this scoring format due to his pass-catching acumen, and if you believe that the Ravens can win at least one game, he may be worth choosing.

3) Joseph Addai: Addai doesn't rack up huge yards, but he was tied for ninth in the league with 10 rushing scores, catches the ball quite a bit, and also is on a team many think is the favorite to win the Super Bowl.

4) Thomas Jones: Jones has a tough go of it in the first round, against the Bengals' seventh-ranked run defense, and though he ran for two scores against them last week, he gained just 78 yards on 27 carries.

5) Ryan Grant: Grant is an excellent runner, and the Packers blew away the Cardinals last week, but his lack of receptions really hurts his value.

6) Cedric Benson: Benson will have to be most of the offense if Cincinnati is to advance in the postseason, but the Jets are a tough defense and there is no frame of reference for how he'll do against them because he sat out last week in their contest.

Player 4
1) LaDainian Tomlinson: Tomlinson has the advantage of being the lead back on a team that very well could wind up in the Super Bowl. Still, he had just one game with at least 75 rushing yards this season and two games with more than two receptions.

2) Pierre Thomas: Thomas had a bruised rib which was part of the reason he didn't suit up last week, but it's not a serious injury. He's a do-it-all back whose only question mark is how many carries he'll get.

3) Marion Barber: Barber had a solid season, though he carried the ball 20 times just once, and not more than 17 in any of his last six games. On a positive note, he did manage 91 yards last week against the Eagles.

4) Reggie Bush: Bush is more of a slot receiver than a running back, but the Saints clearly have the ability to make the Super Bowl, and he could catch enough passes to make him a worthwhile option.

5) Beanie Wells: Wells is now the lead back on a Cardinals team that we all know is dangerous considering what they did last season, and that was without a running game that Wells now provides them.

6) Brian Westbrook: Westbrook is a real wild card, and though we're not high on him due to what could be limited usage, if the Eagles wind up making a solid postseason run, Westbrook could be a big part of that, especially catching the ball.

Player 5
1) Felix Jones: Jones' explosiveness is what makes him an attractive option in this group. He averaged 5.9 yards per carry this season, tying Jamaal Charles for the highest average of any back with at least 100 carries. He also catches a decent amount of passes and received at least 10 carries in each of his last four games.

2) Darren Sproles: Speaking of explosive, Sproles fits right into that category, and he's also a very good receiver out of the backfield, but he doesn't receive the amount of carries Jones gets.

3) Chester Taylor: Taylor is a solid player who totes the rock between 5-10 times per game with 2-4 catches per. He could have good value if you think the Vikings are Super Bowl-bound.

4) Willis McGahee: We all saw what McGahee could do in Baltimore's last game of the season, and it may surprise you to know that he tied for fifth in the NFL with 12 touchdown runs.

5) Donald Brown: If the Colts weren't as good as they were, Brown would be last on this list, but he can pick up points based simply on the fact he may play more games. But he's clearly second fiddle to Joseph Addai, and has battled injuries all year.

6) Tim Hightower: Hightower received double-digit carries just once in his final five games, and he isn't explosive with the ball in his hands. What he does bring is potential fantasy points due to his ability to catch the ball.

Player 6
1) Dallas Clark: Clark was fifth in the NFL in receptions this season, tying teammate Reggie Wayne with 100 passes caught. He also tied Wayne for seventh in the league in touchdown grabs with 10, and is the most reliable pass-catching tight end in football.

2) Reggie Wayne: Wayne's numbers nearly mirrored Clark's in every way but receiving yards, where he picked up 158 more. Yet he's behind Clark due to his slow end to the year. He had fewer than 50 receiving yards in five of his final six games.

3) Sidney Rice: Rice broke out this season to place fourth in the NFL in receiving yards with 1,312 on 83 receptions for a robust average of 15.8 yards per catch. But with receptions so valuable in this fantasy football scoring format, he ranks behind both Indy players.

4) Antonio Gates: Gates is one of the best pass-catching tight end in the game, and arguably number one. He ended the season on a great note, catching a touchdown in each of his final four contests.

5) Vincent Jackson: Jackson started hot, slowed down, then got hot again, racking up 100 yards in two of his final three games. His inconsistency is a concern, especially with so few games in the postseason to make his mark.

6) Marques Colston: There's nothing wrong with selecting Colston, it's just that the Saints have so many weapons, you never can tell who will be the player Drew Brees goes to in any specific game.

Player 7
1) Randy Moss: Moss tied for the league lead in touchdown catches with 13, and without Wes Welker, the onus to do big things in the New England passing game falls squarely on him.

2) Miles Austin: No receiver is currently playing better than Austin right now, who is physically dominating his opponents. He gained 90 or more receiving yards in five of his last six games, and wound up third in the league in that statistic.

3) Larry Fitzgerald: One of the players tied with Moss for the most touchdown catches in the NFL was Fitzgerald, though all things considered, he had a bit of a disappointing season, especially where receiving yards are concerned - he ranked 17th in the NFL with 1,092.

4) DeSean Jackson: Jackson is capable of pretty much anything, but he ended the season with two games of fewer than 50 receiving yards, and plays a Cowboys team that held him in check in Week 17.

5) Greg Jennings: Jennings' four touchdowns on the season was a huge disappointment to fantasy football owners across the land, though he still gained over 1,100 yards. But it's hard to ignore his lack of trips to the end zone and the fact that he caught fewer than 70 passes on the year.

6) Chad Ochocinco: Ochocinco will have to go up against Darrelle Revis in the Bengals' opening playoff game, and Revis, combined with a knee bruise, held Ochocinco to zero catches and zero yards in Week 17.

Player 8
1) Jason Witten: Witten's 94 catches this season were ninth in the NFL, though he only scored twice - once in Week 2, and again in Week 17 - against the very same Eagles team he'll be facing this week.

2) Brent Celek: Celek has become a trusted option for Donovan McNabb, and has proven that all season, but especially in the final weeks. He's the only one that didn't seem to have the dropsies in Week 17 against the Cowboys, a game in which he had seven receptions for 97 yards.

3) Percy Harvin: Harvin is a home run hitter who can find the end zone any time he touches the ball. He'll also run the ball at least once per game, giving him further value. By no means is he a bad option, it's just that he may not get as many looks as some other players in this group. Unless you think the Vikings are headed to the Super Bowl; then, by all means, insert him in your lineup.

4) Anquan Boldin: Boldin is suffering from injuries to both his knee and ankle, and may not suit up for Arizona's initial playoff game, so check his status before employing him in your fantasy football lineup.

5) Donald Driver: Driver had six receptions for 65 yards in Week 17 against Arizona, but he hasn't had a big game since Thanksgiving, and ended the season with fewer than 80 receiving yards in nine of his last 10 games

6) Derrick Mason: Mason is as reliable as they come, but Baltimore will win by running the ball, and their prospects for going deep into the playoffs seem remote.

Player 9
1) Julian Edelman: Edelman takes over the Wes Welker role in the New England offense, and that means big things in this scoring format. For example, in Week 17 he was targeted a whopping 15 times and came up with 10 catches for 103 yards.

2) Jermichael Finley: Finley is on his way to becoming one of the league's elite tight ends, and he finished the season with a bang, gaining 80 receiving yards or scoring a touchdown (or both) in each of his final five games.

3) Pierre Garcon: Garcon battled a hand injury late in the year that stunted what was seemingly excellent growth throughout the season. He was really playing well in the middle of the year before this injury caught up to him, and he can be effective on a team that has Super Bowl aspirations.

4) Robert Meachem: Meachem was extremely hot in the middle of the year, catching a touchdown in five straight games from Weeks 9-13. He's only scored once since then, however, and gained at least 70 yards just once in his final seven contests.

5) Jeremy Maclin: Maclin, Philly's first-round pick this year, has had a very good rookie season, but he's behind both Brent Celek and DeSean Jackson on the depth chart, and had fewer than 50 yards in both of his meetings with Dallas this season, the team the Eagles will face in the first round of the playoffs.

6) Jerricho Cotchery: The Jets pound the rock on the ground to win their games, and despite the fact that Cotchery and Mark Sanchez clearly have a solid chemistry, he's really not worth using.

Player 10
1) Devery Henderson: It's a gamble placing Henderson here, but one that could really pay off. He gained 804 yards this season on 51 receptions, and is always a threat to make one or two huge plays per game.

2) Bernard Berrian: Berrian had a highly disappointing season for his fantasy football owners, but he's on a Vikings team that isn't afraid to use all of their options, and one that could make a significant postseason run.

3) Jeremy Shockey: Shockey has been battling an injury, and hasn't caught a pass since Week 14. Still, it's possible he comes up with a solid postseason effort, because everyone on the Saints is capable of doing so considering how much they spread the ball around.

4) Braylon Edwards: Edwards gained less than 50 receiving yards in six of his final seven games, but he has the capability to deliver. Still, it's difficult to believe in him, especially considering the Jets are the lowest seed in the AFC, and win by running the ball and defense.

5) Roy Williams: If Williams gets the opportunity, he's shown he can make some things happen, but whether he does or not is anyone's guess. He's extremely frustrating to fantasy football owners, and can't be trusted, even if his talent says he can.

6) Steve Breaston: Breaston has ceded catches and yards to Early Doucet, so unless it's found out that Anquan Boldin's injury is a serious one, you should leave him be.

Player 11
1) Austin Collie: With Pierre Garcon out, Collie flourished, catching a touchdown in three consecutive games from Weeks 13-15. He also had nearly 100 yards in Week 16 and is a promising threat to, at the minimum, give you fantasy points with receptions, if not huge yards.

2) Malcolm Floyd: Floyd actually picked up 776 receiving yards on the season, which was more than players like Pierre Garcon, Jeremy Maclin and Robert Meachem. The problem was he did it on just 45 catches, which hurts in this scoring format, and he found the end zone only one time.

3) Patrick Crayton: Crayton is option three or four on the Dallas depth chart, depending on if Roy Williams actually shows up. But he had a big game against the Eagles in Week 17, and shouldn't be completely discounted because of his low spot on the pecking order.

4) James Jones: Jones did more than you might think by the Packers this season. He caught just 32 passes, but gained 440 yards, and more importantly, caught five touchdowns, which was one more than teammate Greg Jennings.

5) Todd Heap: Heap caught two touchdowns in each of his game during Week 15 and 16, and while that meant gold if you had the cajones to use him during your fantasy football playoffs, it was a rare feat for him, and he's just as likely to pick up 30 yards on two catches.

6) Dustin Keller: Keller is a middling option who didn't catch more than three passes or gain even 35 yards in any of his final five games.

Player 12
1) Nate Kaeding: Kaeding tied David Akers for the league lead in field goals, and was one of just two players who made 25 or more kicks to make at least 90 percent of his tries. He's the best kicker on a team with realistic Super Bowl expectations.

2) Ryan Longwell: Longwell has the benefit of kicking indoors until/if he reaches the Super Bowl, which is a nice bonus. He also plays on a high-scoring team and led the NFL in extra points made.

3) Garrett Hartley: Hartley only played five games this season, and though he was 9-for-11 in field goals, he only attempted one kick from 40 yards and beyond, and missed that kick. Still, he's on a team with a potent offense, and could be kicking in three games, which means plenty of points.

4) David Akers: As mentioned, Akers was tied for the league lead in field goals made. But he's on the sixth-seeded team in the NFC, and it may be difficult for the Eagles to advance deep into the postseason. Still, they very well could win a game or two, possibly making Akers a worthwhile selection.

5) Stephen Gostkowski: Gostkowski is on a team that can put up a lot of points, and has at least one home game, but his problem is long-distance kicking - he made only seven of his 11 kicks from 40 yards or beyond.

6) Jay Feely: Feely wasn't always accurate, making just over 83 percent of his field goal tries, but he was tied for third in the league in kicks made. Still, there are other options in this group that are better simply because they are on better teams.

7) Mason Crosby: Crosby made only 75 percent of his kicks this season, which is the worst percentage in this group. And he was only 6-of-13 from 40 yards or beyond.

8) Shaun Suisham: Suisham is a solid kicker, but he and Hartley are the only ones in this group not to have made a 50 yarder, and Suisham played nine more games than Hartley.

Player 13
1) Colts: The defensive group is the most subjective, and essentially boils down to which team you believe will go the furthest, thereby offering you the most opportunity to rack up points. For that reason, we've simply ranked the teams by their playoff seed.

2) Chargers:

3) Patriots:

4) Bengals:

5) Jets:

6) Ravens:

Player 14
1) Saints: The defensive group is the most subjective, and essentially boils down to which team you believe will go the furthest, thereby offering you the most opportunity to rack up points. For that reason, we've simply ranked the teams by their playoff seed.

2) Vikings:

3) Cowboys:

4) Cardinals:

5) Packers:

6) Eagles:









Saturday, October 9, 2010

What Kind of Fantasy Football Value Can a Non-Goal Line Back Hold?

This article will explore the fantasy football value of running backs that do not get goal line carries vs. those that do. To support our analysis we looked at the final running back ranking of 2008 from Yahoo Fantasy Sports. Based on the distribution of final fantasy points we were able to identify five different categories of running backs in the National Football League. First you have the primary running backs that dominate the ball. These are your Adrian Peterson and Ladainian Tomlinsons of the 2008 season. (editors note: LT is currently in a time share for 2009). Second, you have your top tier secondary backs that really put up nice numbers. In 2008 Chris Johnson is the perfect example. While he was dominant between the 20's it was LenDale White who saw the ball on the goal-line. Third, there are your top tier goal line backs. These are your big men who guaranteed to get the ball on the goal line, they often play on running teams who like to grind it out. LenDale White of 2008 is the perfect poster boy for this role. Fourth, you have your secondary running backs that could be playmakers if an injury were to occur. Darren Sproles is the perfect example of this from last year. As soon as LT went down he stepped in and put up huge numbers. Lastly, you have the second tier goal-line specialists. These are the big men who find themselves often as the third back on the depth chart and are brought in only in short yardage situations. TJ Duckett is the perfect example of this type of player. Lets take a deeper look at the running backs from 2008 and see what else there is to learn.


The top 10 running backs from the 2008 season all received goal line duties and were not involved in a RBBC. Those that were in an RBBC played along a secondary running back who was more of a scat back change of pace guy and not really a threat to steal goal line carries.


Of the backs that finished the season ranked 11-20 we begin to see the dominant RBBC backs appear. Chris Johnson who did not receive goal line duty in 2008 makes the list at #11. Brandon Jacobs who split carries with Derrick Ward, but did receive goal lines duties comes in at #12. At #16 is Ronnie Brown who is similar to Chris Johnson and also did not receive many goal line carries in 2008. #19 and #20 are LenDale White and LeRon Mclain who both did not receive the majority of their teams carries, but did consistently get the ball on the goal line. It appears the second tier of running backs is variable in its makeup. Essentially you have the non-RBBC backs strung in with the dominant non-goal line backs and the lucky secondary RBBC players who happen to hit pay dirt the most near the goal line.


After #20 things get very variable. In fact from looking at the way the final rankings wound up it is better to put your chips on the secondary back in the RBBC who does not necessarily get goal carries than a straight up goal line specialist. By far the players with the least value are the big men who only see the ball on the goal-line. True goal line specialists do not really seem worth a fantasy football play.


At the end of the day running backs should be valued as follows:
1. Primary backs who get goal line carries
2. Top tier secondary backs who rack up yards
3. Top tier goal-line backs
4. Secondary running backs with a shot to put up points in the event of injury
5. Secondary backs who are goal-line specialists


Top 2008 Running Backs
1. DeAngelo Williams
2. Michael Turner
3. Matt Forte
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Thomas Jones
6. Ladainian Tomlinson
7. Steve Slaton
8. Maurice Jones-Drew
9. Clinton Portis
10. Brian Westbrook
11. Chris Johnson
12. Brandon Jacobs
13. Marshawn Lynch
14. Frank Gore
15. Steven Jackson
16. Ronnie Brown
17. Marion Barber
18. Kevin Smith
19. LenDale White
20. Le'Ron McClain
21. Pierre Thomas
22. Ryan Grant
23. Derrick Ward
24. Jonathan Stewart
25. Jamal Lewis


BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com is a Fantasy Sports site intended to bring a scientific approach to player evaluation for fantasy baseball, football, basketball and now boxing! BCRT.com provides free news, statistics, and expert analysis of interesting trends which can give your fantasy team the competitive advantage it needs to crush your competition.


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Friday, October 8, 2010

Fantasy Football RB Rankings Second Look

With preseason games underway and some injuries to muddle things, let's take a look at the latest fantasy football rankings in one expert's mind.


1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Ray Rice
5. Frank Gore
6. Steven Jackson
7. Michael Turner
8. Ryan Grant
9. DeAngelo Williams
10. Rashard Mendenhall
11. Ryan Matthews
12. Knowshon Moreno
13. Jonathan Stewart
14. Beanie Wells
15. Jamaal Charles
16. LeSean McCoy
17. Shonn Greene
18. Matt Forte
19. Cedric Benson
20. Ronnie Brown
21. Pierre Thomas
22. Arian Foster
23. Joseph Addai
24. Clinton Portis
25. Felix Jones
26. CJ Spiller
27. Jahvid Best
28. Marion Barber
29. Justin Forsett
30. Cadillac Williams
31. Ahmad Bradshaw
32. Jerome Harrison
33. Brandon Jacobs
34. Fred Jackson
35. Ricky Williams


-The top four remain the same in standard leagues but I wouldn't argue if someone took Jones-Drew over Peterson in PPR.


-The biggest mover since my first installment was LeSean McCoy up to number 16. This kid has a ton of talent and will be one of the more exciting players in football this year. The TD's may be light due to the presence of Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver but the catches and yards that go with it will more than make up for it.


-I have seen Ryan Matthews ranked as high as number 7 which is crazy to me. The man has yet to play a down in the NFL and I would never take him as a RB 1. Matthews is in a great setting as the main back in a decent offense but dont forget the presence of Darren Sproles who will supplant him on third down, thus cutting down his opportunities.


-I still have DeAngelo Williams ranked over Jonathan Stewart but thats only because he makes more of an impact in the passing game. I still love Stewart and think he is a top RB 2.


-Jamaal Charles took a big dip to number 15 due to the news that Thomas Jones will be the starter once the season gets going. I am a big fan of Charles as I took him as my RB 1 in my money league (with Jonathan Stewart and Matt Forte my 2nd and 3rd backs) and I still think he will haev a big year but maybe not the year we all expected.


-CJ Spiller has passed Fred Jackson in the rankings due to the latter's broken hand but it is possible that Jackson gets back before the opener. If thats the case, than he will be the bPetter player to target.


-Arian Foster moves up to number 22 now that the backfield there looks less muddled with the season ending injurt to Ben Tate. I am in the dark about what Foster can really do but the playing time will be there.


-Keep an eye on Justin Forsett who can make as huge move up the board due to the fact he should get the majority of work in Seattle. Adept at catching the ball, Forsett could be a real find. I nabbed him late in my draft.


-Pierre Thomas is down to 21 with the news that the Saints are actively trying to find a goal line back. That means more TD's stolen from Thomas and thus a drop in his numbers.


That's all for now. Stay tuned for more rankings.


FOUNDER OF http://fantasysportsboss.blogspot.com/ Which details all the fantasy sports news in football and baseball. Updated multiple times a day.

Thursday, October 7, 2010

AFC & NFC Championship Games Fantasy Football Forecast


The NFC and AFC Championship Games are nearing, and that means more fantasy football to devour at RotoPlay. And to help you assemble the most potent roster possible, here is this week's forecast.

(Note: The scoring for this contest covers just this week, as opposed to the other fantasy football playoff contests on RotoPlay, which run through the Super Bowl)

Player 1

1) Drew Brees: Brees blistered the Cardinals for nearly 250 passing yards and three touchdowns last week as New Orleans took a wrecking ball to Arizona's hopes of getting back to the Super Bowl. And despite how dominant the Vikings seemed last week against Dallas, their pass defense was not intimidating during the regular season. Minnesota was 19th in pass defense for the year, and 23rd in passing scores given up. If the Saints' offensive line can keep Brees upright, he could have a monster day.

2) Peyton Manning: In the regular season, the Jets gave up an average of 30 fewer passing yards per game than any other team in the league, and allowed six fewer touchdown passes than any other team. They've been good this postseason as well, picking off three passes and allowing only two touchdowns, but Manning is arguably the best quarterback ever, and he defies those statistics - well, at least to the point where we'll rank him second in this group.

3) Brett Favre: Favre enjoyed the first postseason four-touchdown game of his storied career last week, as the Vikings hammered the Cowboys in every which way. True, one of those was a semi-controversial toss in garbage time at the end of the fourth quarter, but it really only rankled some members of the Dallas Cowboys, and likely their fans (certainly, Favre's postseason fantasy football owners enjoyed it). Really, the only concern with Favre is that he reverts back to his old ways and starts slinging the ball around, especially because the Saints were third in the NFL in interceptions, and have a knack for creating key turnovers.

4) Mark Sanchez: For obvious reasons, Sanchez really shouldn't be considered as an option among the other stalwarts in this group.

Player 2

1) Adrian Peterson: Peterson ran for only 63 yards in Minnesota's blowout win over Dallas last week, continuing a trend that has seen him run for fewer than 100 yards in nine consecutive games. It should be noted, however, than he ran for at least 80 yards in four of those games, and has become an effective weapon as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, having caught at least three passes for at least 40 yards in four of his last five regular season games. The Saints are not particularly torrid in run defense, ranking 21st in the NFL in that statistic in the regular season, and allowed 6.7 yards per carry against the Cardinals last week. The optimist in you may just say he's due for a big game.

2) Pierre Thomas: Thomas overcame a rib injury and ran the ball 13 times for 52 yards against Arizona last week. He also caught four passes for 18 yards, and that's where his value comes into play, especially in this scoring format and against the formidable run defense of the Vikings, who were second in the NFL against the run this season and tied with the Packers for fewest rushing scores allowed.

3) Joseph Addai: Addai isn't a running back that will pile up huge numbers, but he does a little bit of everything. Unfortunately, he hasn't done enough for his postseason fantasy football owners, such as last week's 11-carry, 23-yard performance. Still, he found the end zone frequently this season (13 touchdowns), and he's also caught at least three passes in each of his last five games.

4) Thomas Jones: Though Jones remains the lead back for the Jets in theory, Shonn Greene has seemingly taken over that role in the postseason. Jones has run for only 75 yards on 29 carries with one score in the Jets' two playoff games, and he hasn't caught a single pass.

Player 3

1) Shonn Greene: As mentioned above, Greene has taken the lead for the Jets in the running game. He's had two fabulous outings, running for 135 yards and one touchdown against the Bengals, and 128 yards and one score against the Chargers. Indianapolis was just 24th in the league against the run during the regular season, and Greene had 95 yards against them in Week 16.

2) Reggie Bush: Bush had his best game of the season in terms of total yards last week against the Cardinals, running for 84 yards and one score on five carries, and catching four passes for 24 yards. Maybe it was because Kim Kardashian was in the building, but last week Bush also showed toughness while running the ball, something he hadn't shown much of previously. One of the things holding him back in this scoring format is that he doesn't get many carries, but he's still as explosive a player as a fantasy football owner could ask for.

3) Chester Taylor: Taylor had 23 yards rushing on four carries last week against the Cowboys, and 16 yards on two receptions. When he gets the opportunity, he can make plays, but he simply doesn't get the amount of overall opportunities that you're likely to see from the above options.

4) Donald Brown: Brown only ran the ball six times for 10 yards against the Ravens, though he did have two receptions for 15 yards. Still, the other options in this group are simply sounder than the rookie from UConn.

Player 4

1) Dallas Clark: Clark caught four passes for 57 yards against the Jets in Week 16 before being yanked from the game. In the Colts' win over the Ravens last week, he had seven receptions for 59 yards, marking the third time in four contests he caught exactly seven balls. With receptions so valuable in this scoring format, he's No. 1 in this group. And as good as the Jets are against the pass, Antonio Gates had eight catches for 93 yards in San Diego's loss to New York last week.

2) Sidney Rice: Rice was a monster in Minnesota's dismantling of the Cowboys, catching six passes, half of which went for touchdowns, and accumulating 142 receiving yards. It was his second straight game with six catches for over 100 yards with multiple touchdowns. He's clearly in sync with Brett Favre, and is an outstanding option for obvious reasons.

3) Marques Colston: Colston led his team with six receptions and 83 receiving yards last week against the Cardinals, and he also found the end zone. It was the third time in his last four games (with Week 17 being the exception) that Colston caught at least five passes for at least 75 yards. He's New Orleans' No. 1 target at wide receiver, and thus, an option worth seriously considering.

4) Reggie Wayne: Yes, Vincent Jackson had over 100 receiving yards last week even though Darrelle Revis was covering him, but in a fantasy football format where you have other very good options, we'd simply stay away from the best cornerback in the land.

Player 5

1) Percy Harvin: Harvin wasn't involved much in Minnesota's win over the Cowboys last week, catching only one pass for a single yard and running the ball three times for 23 yards, but you have to believe that will change. That outing was the first time Harvin was in single digits in receiving yards all season, and in what promises to be a high-scoring affair this week, you have to believe the rookie from Florida will be in the mix offensively for the Vikings.

2) Robert Meachem: Like Harvin, Meachem did not figure into his team's offense last week, failing to catch even one pass for the first time since Week 7. Yet also like Harvin, expect him to be a bigger part of his team's offense this week, though he ranks behind the rookie because he hasn't been as consistent throughout the course of the season as Harvin has.

3) Pierre Garcon: Garcon, who did not play against the Jets in Week 16 when New York visited Indy, had five receptions for just 34 yards last week against the Ravens. The Jets are No. 1 against the pass, and even with Darrelle Revis likely covering Reggie Wayne most of the day, Garcon will still have his work cut out for him.

4) Braylon Edwards: Sometimes Edwards has it, sometimes he does not, and last week's two-reception, 41-yard effort against the Chargers did little to inspire confidence that he'd show up this week against the Colts' solid pass defense.

Player 6

1) Jerricho Cotchery: Cotchery has put up solid numbers in the playoffs thus far, with nine receptions for 92 yards in two games, and over the course of the season he's shown himself to be the team's top pass-catching threat. And let's face it - the Jets will have to throw the ball at some point, especially if the Colts get out to an early lead, putting Cotchery, who had four catches for 45 yards against Indy in Week 16, in a position to contribute.

2) Austin Collie: Collie had big numbers against the Jets in their Week 16 match-up, with six catches for 94 yards. That comes with a caveat, however, in that the Colts had pulled most of their players, and Collie was left in, making him the No. 1 option. Still, the rookie has played well down the stretch, including last week when he caught four passes, including one for a touchdown, for 52 yards.

3) Devery Henderson: Henderson showed some of that big-play ability last week that was missing from his game so often during the regular season. He caught a 44-yard touchdown pass as part of a four-reception, 80-yard day, and as one of the Saints' top-three wideouts, has a chance to pick up plenty of fantasy points each week. However, he isn't as consistently on the other end of Drew Brees' passes as you might hope, and receptions are too important in this scoring system to ignore.

4) Bernard Berrian: Berrian is on the outside looking in during most of the Vikings' offensive possessions, and as such he caught only three passes for 32 yards last week. He hasn't caught more than three passes in any of his last four games, and hasn't scored in seven contests. Still, he does have a chance to show up if this game turns into a shootout, so don't completely discount him.

Player 7

1) Visanthe Shiancoe: Shiancoe has proven to be a touchdown machine all season, and figured into the scoring again last week, even though it was his only reception of the game and came at the end of the fourth quarter (upsetting the Cowboys, and linebacker Keith Brooking in particular). But the fact is, he's scored in three consecutive games, so even if he doesn't catch a lot of passes, counting on him to find the end zone is something you can do with confidence.

2) Jeremy Shockey: Shockey caught his first touchdown since Week 6 in New Orleans' playoff win over Arizona last week, and for the game hauled in three passes for 36 yards. However, during the game, he seemed to be favoring the toe injury that had sidelined him at the end of the regular season, which may have hampered his production. If you're confident he's healthy, by all means consider using him because he does give you the ability to pick up points with receptions that Shiancoe may not.

3) Dustin Keller: After scoring just twice in the regular season, Keller scored his second touchdown of the postseason last week against the Chargers. Though he picked up just 19 yards in the contest, he did so on three receptions, which is a solid total in this scoring system. But considering his struggles to find the end zone during the regular season, you have to wonder if he has it in him to score for the third straight game.

4) David Thomas: Thomas had a big role in the Saints' offense when the aforementioned Shockey went down, but with Shockey back in the saddle, Thomas' production waned. He didn't have a catch last week, and is probably not someone you want in your fantasy football lineup this week.

Kicker

1) Ryan Longwell: Longwell made both of his field goal tries last week, and in fact missed only two field goal attempts all season. Despite playing on the road, he'll still be inside a dome, which is a welcome location for all kickers.

2) Garrett Hartley: Hartley is one of those players that falls in the high risk/high reward category. He nailed his only field goal try last week and plays for a robust offense, but on the other hand, he missed most of the season with an injury and does not have much postseason experience, so there's no telling how he'll react.

3) Jay Feely: The Colts allowed more field goals from 40-49 yards than any other NFL team, and that means solid points in this scoring system. Also, the Jets do not carry a potent offense with them into this contest, so field goals could be the order of the day.

4) Matt Stover: During the regular season, the Jets allowed the fifth-fewest field goals in the league, and the fewest extra points. Furthermore, kickers have missed all five field goals attempted against them so far this postseason. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but Stover gets the bottom ranking anyway.

Defense

(Note: We won't rank the defenses, because which team you believe will win will have a lot to do with the defense you select).

- Indianapolis Colts: The Colts' defense isn't superb, but they are facing a Jets team that scored the fewest points among winning teams in each of the two playoff rounds, and have a decided advantage in that they play at home.

- New York Jets: The Jets are tempting, but the Colts have an outstanding offense, and will be difficult to beat at home. Still, if you think they'll upset the Colts, they belong in the top spot.

- New Orleans Saints: The Saints allowed just 14 points to the previously potent Arizona offense in New Orleans' 45-14 beat down last weekend. New Orleans wasn't an imposing defense throughout the season, but they got plenty of turnovers, a formula that worked last week and will likely need to take shape again this week.

- Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota devoured the Dallas offense in every way last week en route to destroying the Cowboys 34-3. The Vikings have a better defense than the Saints statistically, especially against the run, but the Saints are a legitimately great offense, and the home crowd will be thunderous, considering this will be the first time in their history that they'll host an NFC Championship game.









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