My Pierre Thomas Blog

The NFL's regular season is over, but the fantasy football season continues. Hopefully your fantasy football team was successful this season, but if not, one more chance for redemption awaits you. And even if you tasted success, and won your league, the playoffs allow you one more opportunity for fantasy football glory. And to help you achieve that exaltation, here are our player rankings.

Player 1
1) Peyton Manning: Despite playing less than a full game in each of his final two contests, Manning was second in the NFL in completions, completion percentage, passing yards and passing touchdowns (tied with Brett Favre). All that and his team was working on an undefeated season before essentially forfeiting their final two games.

2) Drew Brees: Brees set the NFL record for single-season completion percentage and led the NFL with 34 touchdown passes despite sitting out Week 17. If you believe the Saints' late-season struggles were just a blip on the radar, Brees is an excellent option.

3) Philip Rivers: Rivers never seems to get mentioned when the top quarterbacks in the league are mentioned, but fantasy football enthusiasts know plenty about him. His 104.4 quarterback rating for the season was third in the league, and he was in the top-10 in both passing yards and touchdown throws.

4) Tony Romo: Romo had a great season, coming in third in the NFL in passing yards, and he happens to be playing his best football right now. Dallas is the No. 3 seed in the NFC, and many pundits like them to make a run at the Super Bowl.

5) Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers was fourth in passing yards, passing scores and quarterback rating for this season, so there's no doubt he is one of the best in the game. Green Bay is the fifth seed as well, which means it's unlikely they'd be playing any home games. He's the ultimate boom-or-bust candidate in this group.

6) Brett Favre: Favre had a remarkable year in every way, and he ended the regular season with a flourish. You have to wonder, however, if the Vikings will gear up the running game more in the playoffs than they did towards the end of the regular season.

Player 2
1) Kurt Warner: We all saw what Warner could do last season if he got hot in the playoffs, and despite the Cards getting waxed by the Packers last week, it didn't seem like they gave their full effort, did it?

2) Donovan McNabb: McNabb was worse than his pedestrian numbers (20-of-36, no touchdowns, no interceptions) indicated last week against the Cowboys, as he missed a number of open receivers. That and the fact that Philly is the No. 6 seed in the NFC will lead some to be pessimistic about him for a postseason fantasy football run, but remember that Philly had won six in a row, and McNabb has led his team on a number of deep playoff runs.

3) Tom Brady: While we certainly believe the Patriots can make an extended playoff run, Brady is dealing with a plethora of problems. First and foremost are his busted bones - he reportedly has three cracked ribs and a broken index finger on his right (throwing) hand. Not to mention the fact that Brady has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three of his last four games, and his leading pass-catcher, Wes Welker, tore up his knee and will miss the playoffs.

4) Joe Flacco: If you're looking for a sleeper candidate, Flacco may be your man. He doesn't put up huge numbers, but the Ravens have the running game and defense necessary to allow them to make an extended push in the playoffs, with Flacco doing enough to give you decent fantasy points along the way.

5) Carson Palmer: Really, Palmer and Mark Sanchez should be 6A and 6B, as neither is much of an option. Palmer was horrendous against the Jets last week, completing one of his 11 throws, for zero yards. New York is No. 1 in the NFL against the pass, but even if Cincy does beat them, Palmer won't give you much.

6) Mark Sanchez: Sanchez is the poorest passer among quarterbacks whose teams made it to the playoffs, and he should be treated as such here. Even a Super Bowl run for him may not produce equal numbers equal to two games from other quarterbacks in the playoffs.

Player 3
1) Adrian Peterson: Peterson led the NFL in rushing scores, and despite the fact he didn't have a 100-yard rushing game in the playoffs, his fantasy football value is beyond doubt, and there's reason to think that if the Vikings advance to the Super Bowl, he'll have a lot to do with it.

2) Ray Rice: Rice has huge value in this scoring format due to his pass-catching acumen, and if you believe that the Ravens can win at least one game, he may be worth choosing.

3) Joseph Addai: Addai doesn't rack up huge yards, but he was tied for ninth in the league with 10 rushing scores, catches the ball quite a bit, and also is on a team many think is the favorite to win the Super Bowl.

4) Thomas Jones: Jones has a tough go of it in the first round, against the Bengals' seventh-ranked run defense, and though he ran for two scores against them last week, he gained just 78 yards on 27 carries.

5) Ryan Grant: Grant is an excellent runner, and the Packers blew away the Cardinals last week, but his lack of receptions really hurts his value.

6) Cedric Benson: Benson will have to be most of the offense if Cincinnati is to advance in the postseason, but the Jets are a tough defense and there is no frame of reference for how he'll do against them because he sat out last week in their contest.

Player 4
1) LaDainian Tomlinson: Tomlinson has the advantage of being the lead back on a team that very well could wind up in the Super Bowl. Still, he had just one game with at least 75 rushing yards this season and two games with more than two receptions.

2) Pierre Thomas: Thomas had a bruised rib which was part of the reason he didn't suit up last week, but it's not a serious injury. He's a do-it-all back whose only question mark is how many carries he'll get.

3) Marion Barber: Barber had a solid season, though he carried the ball 20 times just once, and not more than 17 in any of his last six games. On a positive note, he did manage 91 yards last week against the Eagles.

4) Reggie Bush: Bush is more of a slot receiver than a running back, but the Saints clearly have the ability to make the Super Bowl, and he could catch enough passes to make him a worthwhile option.

5) Beanie Wells: Wells is now the lead back on a Cardinals team that we all know is dangerous considering what they did last season, and that was without a running game that Wells now provides them.

6) Brian Westbrook: Westbrook is a real wild card, and though we're not high on him due to what could be limited usage, if the Eagles wind up making a solid postseason run, Westbrook could be a big part of that, especially catching the ball.

Player 5
1) Felix Jones: Jones' explosiveness is what makes him an attractive option in this group. He averaged 5.9 yards per carry this season, tying Jamaal Charles for the highest average of any back with at least 100 carries. He also catches a decent amount of passes and received at least 10 carries in each of his last four games.

2) Darren Sproles: Speaking of explosive, Sproles fits right into that category, and he's also a very good receiver out of the backfield, but he doesn't receive the amount of carries Jones gets.

3) Chester Taylor: Taylor is a solid player who totes the rock between 5-10 times per game with 2-4 catches per. He could have good value if you think the Vikings are Super Bowl-bound.

4) Willis McGahee: We all saw what McGahee could do in Baltimore's last game of the season, and it may surprise you to know that he tied for fifth in the NFL with 12 touchdown runs.

5) Donald Brown: If the Colts weren't as good as they were, Brown would be last on this list, but he can pick up points based simply on the fact he may play more games. But he's clearly second fiddle to Joseph Addai, and has battled injuries all year.

6) Tim Hightower: Hightower received double-digit carries just once in his final five games, and he isn't explosive with the ball in his hands. What he does bring is potential fantasy points due to his ability to catch the ball.

Player 6
1) Dallas Clark: Clark was fifth in the NFL in receptions this season, tying teammate Reggie Wayne with 100 passes caught. He also tied Wayne for seventh in the league in touchdown grabs with 10, and is the most reliable pass-catching tight end in football.

2) Reggie Wayne: Wayne's numbers nearly mirrored Clark's in every way but receiving yards, where he picked up 158 more. Yet he's behind Clark due to his slow end to the year. He had fewer than 50 receiving yards in five of his final six games.

3) Sidney Rice: Rice broke out this season to place fourth in the NFL in receiving yards with 1,312 on 83 receptions for a robust average of 15.8 yards per catch. But with receptions so valuable in this fantasy football scoring format, he ranks behind both Indy players.

4) Antonio Gates: Gates is one of the best pass-catching tight end in the game, and arguably number one. He ended the season on a great note, catching a touchdown in each of his final four contests.

5) Vincent Jackson: Jackson started hot, slowed down, then got hot again, racking up 100 yards in two of his final three games. His inconsistency is a concern, especially with so few games in the postseason to make his mark.

6) Marques Colston: There's nothing wrong with selecting Colston, it's just that the Saints have so many weapons, you never can tell who will be the player Drew Brees goes to in any specific game.

Player 7
1) Randy Moss: Moss tied for the league lead in touchdown catches with 13, and without Wes Welker, the onus to do big things in the New England passing game falls squarely on him.

2) Miles Austin: No receiver is currently playing better than Austin right now, who is physically dominating his opponents. He gained 90 or more receiving yards in five of his last six games, and wound up third in the league in that statistic.

3) Larry Fitzgerald: One of the players tied with Moss for the most touchdown catches in the NFL was Fitzgerald, though all things considered, he had a bit of a disappointing season, especially where receiving yards are concerned - he ranked 17th in the NFL with 1,092.

4) DeSean Jackson: Jackson is capable of pretty much anything, but he ended the season with two games of fewer than 50 receiving yards, and plays a Cowboys team that held him in check in Week 17.

5) Greg Jennings: Jennings' four touchdowns on the season was a huge disappointment to fantasy football owners across the land, though he still gained over 1,100 yards. But it's hard to ignore his lack of trips to the end zone and the fact that he caught fewer than 70 passes on the year.

6) Chad Ochocinco: Ochocinco will have to go up against Darrelle Revis in the Bengals' opening playoff game, and Revis, combined with a knee bruise, held Ochocinco to zero catches and zero yards in Week 17.

Player 8
1) Jason Witten: Witten's 94 catches this season were ninth in the NFL, though he only scored twice - once in Week 2, and again in Week 17 - against the very same Eagles team he'll be facing this week.

2) Brent Celek: Celek has become a trusted option for Donovan McNabb, and has proven that all season, but especially in the final weeks. He's the only one that didn't seem to have the dropsies in Week 17 against the Cowboys, a game in which he had seven receptions for 97 yards.

3) Percy Harvin: Harvin is a home run hitter who can find the end zone any time he touches the ball. He'll also run the ball at least once per game, giving him further value. By no means is he a bad option, it's just that he may not get as many looks as some other players in this group. Unless you think the Vikings are headed to the Super Bowl; then, by all means, insert him in your lineup.

4) Anquan Boldin: Boldin is suffering from injuries to both his knee and ankle, and may not suit up for Arizona's initial playoff game, so check his status before employing him in your fantasy football lineup.

5) Donald Driver: Driver had six receptions for 65 yards in Week 17 against Arizona, but he hasn't had a big game since Thanksgiving, and ended the season with fewer than 80 receiving yards in nine of his last 10 games

6) Derrick Mason: Mason is as reliable as they come, but Baltimore will win by running the ball, and their prospects for going deep into the playoffs seem remote.

Player 9
1) Julian Edelman: Edelman takes over the Wes Welker role in the New England offense, and that means big things in this scoring format. For example, in Week 17 he was targeted a whopping 15 times and came up with 10 catches for 103 yards.

2) Jermichael Finley: Finley is on his way to becoming one of the league's elite tight ends, and he finished the season with a bang, gaining 80 receiving yards or scoring a touchdown (or both) in each of his final five games.

3) Pierre Garcon: Garcon battled a hand injury late in the year that stunted what was seemingly excellent growth throughout the season. He was really playing well in the middle of the year before this injury caught up to him, and he can be effective on a team that has Super Bowl aspirations.

4) Robert Meachem: Meachem was extremely hot in the middle of the year, catching a touchdown in five straight games from Weeks 9-13. He's only scored once since then, however, and gained at least 70 yards just once in his final seven contests.

5) Jeremy Maclin: Maclin, Philly's first-round pick this year, has had a very good rookie season, but he's behind both Brent Celek and DeSean Jackson on the depth chart, and had fewer than 50 yards in both of his meetings with Dallas this season, the team the Eagles will face in the first round of the playoffs.

6) Jerricho Cotchery: The Jets pound the rock on the ground to win their games, and despite the fact that Cotchery and Mark Sanchez clearly have a solid chemistry, he's really not worth using.

Player 10
1) Devery Henderson: It's a gamble placing Henderson here, but one that could really pay off. He gained 804 yards this season on 51 receptions, and is always a threat to make one or two huge plays per game.

2) Bernard Berrian: Berrian had a highly disappointing season for his fantasy football owners, but he's on a Vikings team that isn't afraid to use all of their options, and one that could make a significant postseason run.

3) Jeremy Shockey: Shockey has been battling an injury, and hasn't caught a pass since Week 14. Still, it's possible he comes up with a solid postseason effort, because everyone on the Saints is capable of doing so considering how much they spread the ball around.

4) Braylon Edwards: Edwards gained less than 50 receiving yards in six of his final seven games, but he has the capability to deliver. Still, it's difficult to believe in him, especially considering the Jets are the lowest seed in the AFC, and win by running the ball and defense.

5) Roy Williams: If Williams gets the opportunity, he's shown he can make some things happen, but whether he does or not is anyone's guess. He's extremely frustrating to fantasy football owners, and can't be trusted, even if his talent says he can.

6) Steve Breaston: Breaston has ceded catches and yards to Early Doucet, so unless it's found out that Anquan Boldin's injury is a serious one, you should leave him be.

Player 11
1) Austin Collie: With Pierre Garcon out, Collie flourished, catching a touchdown in three consecutive games from Weeks 13-15. He also had nearly 100 yards in Week 16 and is a promising threat to, at the minimum, give you fantasy points with receptions, if not huge yards.

2) Malcolm Floyd: Floyd actually picked up 776 receiving yards on the season, which was more than players like Pierre Garcon, Jeremy Maclin and Robert Meachem. The problem was he did it on just 45 catches, which hurts in this scoring format, and he found the end zone only one time.

3) Patrick Crayton: Crayton is option three or four on the Dallas depth chart, depending on if Roy Williams actually shows up. But he had a big game against the Eagles in Week 17, and shouldn't be completely discounted because of his low spot on the pecking order.

4) James Jones: Jones did more than you might think by the Packers this season. He caught just 32 passes, but gained 440 yards, and more importantly, caught five touchdowns, which was one more than teammate Greg Jennings.

5) Todd Heap: Heap caught two touchdowns in each of his game during Week 15 and 16, and while that meant gold if you had the cajones to use him during your fantasy football playoffs, it was a rare feat for him, and he's just as likely to pick up 30 yards on two catches.

6) Dustin Keller: Keller is a middling option who didn't catch more than three passes or gain even 35 yards in any of his final five games.

Player 12
1) Nate Kaeding: Kaeding tied David Akers for the league lead in field goals, and was one of just two players who made 25 or more kicks to make at least 90 percent of his tries. He's the best kicker on a team with realistic Super Bowl expectations.

2) Ryan Longwell: Longwell has the benefit of kicking indoors until/if he reaches the Super Bowl, which is a nice bonus. He also plays on a high-scoring team and led the NFL in extra points made.

3) Garrett Hartley: Hartley only played five games this season, and though he was 9-for-11 in field goals, he only attempted one kick from 40 yards and beyond, and missed that kick. Still, he's on a team with a potent offense, and could be kicking in three games, which means plenty of points.

4) David Akers: As mentioned, Akers was tied for the league lead in field goals made. But he's on the sixth-seeded team in the NFC, and it may be difficult for the Eagles to advance deep into the postseason. Still, they very well could win a game or two, possibly making Akers a worthwhile selection.

5) Stephen Gostkowski: Gostkowski is on a team that can put up a lot of points, and has at least one home game, but his problem is long-distance kicking - he made only seven of his 11 kicks from 40 yards or beyond.

6) Jay Feely: Feely wasn't always accurate, making just over 83 percent of his field goal tries, but he was tied for third in the league in kicks made. Still, there are other options in this group that are better simply because they are on better teams.

7) Mason Crosby: Crosby made only 75 percent of his kicks this season, which is the worst percentage in this group. And he was only 6-of-13 from 40 yards or beyond.

8) Shaun Suisham: Suisham is a solid kicker, but he and Hartley are the only ones in this group not to have made a 50 yarder, and Suisham played nine more games than Hartley.

Player 13
1) Colts: The defensive group is the most subjective, and essentially boils down to which team you believe will go the furthest, thereby offering you the most opportunity to rack up points. For that reason, we've simply ranked the teams by their playoff seed.

2) Chargers:

3) Patriots:

4) Bengals:

5) Jets:

6) Ravens:

Player 14
1) Saints: The defensive group is the most subjective, and essentially boils down to which team you believe will go the furthest, thereby offering you the most opportunity to rack up points. For that reason, we've simply ranked the teams by their playoff seed.

2) Vikings:

3) Cowboys:

4) Cardinals:

5) Packers:

6) Eagles:

Last week, Mark Sanchez became the first rookie QB since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 to win his first three games. But "Sanchise" and the Jets have to travel to New Orleans to get their 4th win against their toughest opponent yet.

Jets on Offense

Thomas Jones has to be productive in order for the Jets to hold their own offensively. Jones had 107 yards and 2 TDs against the Texans in Week 1, but has been quiet ever since. If Jones can throw off the Saints' Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams' game plan of stopping the run early, New Orleans will have to respect New York's rushing attack more than they'd like to. This can set up the Jets' passing game and take some pressure off Sanchez, who will be truly tested on the road for the first time in his career.

Sanchez can put up some points if he finds the open lanes and trusts WR's Jerrico Cotchery and Chansi Stuckey to make plays. He should also use Leon Washington as a safety blanket in the passing attack. But the Saints' defense should not be taken lightly; New Orleans has allowed just 67.0 rushing yards per game this season. Look for former-Jet LB Jonathan Vilma to bring it against his former team. FS Darren Sharper already has 3 interceptions and 1 defensive TD this season, and he can really change the momentum of the game by picking off Sanchez. 

Saints on Offense

While Sanchez captures headlines with his 3-0 start, Drew Brees is quietly becoming one of the most accurate passers in the league. Brees' 118.1 passer rating and 9 touchdown passes are the most in the league right now. This game's classic match up will be between the coaches: Sean Payton's offense versus Rex Ryan's defense. The Jets got the best of the 3 veteran QBs they've faced so far, allowing just 256 yards of total offense per game. But the Saints have been an offensive powerhouse.

One thing that makes them so hard to defend is Brees' ability to spread the field with different options, lead by receivers Marques Colston and Devery Henderson. Brees should target the Jets' CB Lito Sheopard, who was out last week with a strained quad. The Saints can also grind the ball with RB's Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell. But the x-factor in New Orleans' offense against the Jets has to be Reggie Bush. While the Jets are busy blitzing Brees and trying to shut down the inside run, Bush can be dangerous if he gets the ball in open field. Brees should look to isolate Bush against LB's and secondary by throwing him quick screens and pitches. If Sean Payton's offense runs as smoothly as it has been, the Saints can quickly bring the Jets back to earth.

Prediction

New Orleans    33

NYJ        24

This article will explore the fantasy football value of running backs that do not get goal line carries vs. those that do. To support our analysis we looked at the final running back ranking of 2008 from Yahoo Fantasy Sports. Based on the distribution of final fantasy points we were able to identify five different categories of running backs in the National Football League. First you have the primary running backs that dominate the ball. These are your Adrian Peterson and Ladainian Tomlinsons of the 2008 season. (editors note: LT is currently in a time share for 2009). Second, you have your top tier secondary backs that really put up nice numbers. In 2008 Chris Johnson is the perfect example. While he was dominant between the 20's it was LenDale White who saw the ball on the goal-line. Third, there are your top tier goal line backs. These are your big men who guaranteed to get the ball on the goal line, they often play on running teams who like to grind it out. LenDale White of 2008 is the perfect poster boy for this role. Fourth, you have your secondary running backs that could be playmakers if an injury were to occur. Darren Sproles is the perfect example of this from last year. As soon as LT went down he stepped in and put up huge numbers. Lastly, you have the second tier goal-line specialists. These are the big men who find themselves often as the third back on the depth chart and are brought in only in short yardage situations. TJ Duckett is the perfect example of this type of player. Lets take a deeper look at the running backs from 2008 and see what else there is to learn.

The top 10 running backs from the 2008 season all received goal line duties and were not involved in a RBBC. Those that were in an RBBC played along a secondary running back who was more of a scat back change of pace guy and not really a threat to steal goal line carries.

Of the backs that finished the season ranked 11-20 we begin to see the dominant RBBC backs appear. Chris Johnson who did not receive goal line duty in 2008 makes the list at #11. Brandon Jacobs who split carries with Derrick Ward, but did receive goal lines duties comes in at #12. At #16 is Ronnie Brown who is similar to Chris Johnson and also did not receive many goal line carries in 2008. #19 and #20 are LenDale White and LeRon Mclain who both did not receive the majority of their teams carries, but did consistently get the ball on the goal line. It appears the second tier of running backs is variable in its makeup. Essentially you have the non-RBBC backs strung in with the dominant non-goal line backs and the lucky secondary RBBC players who happen to hit pay dirt the most near the goal line.

After #20 things get very variable. In fact from looking at the way the final rankings wound up it is better to put your chips on the secondary back in the RBBC who does not necessarily get goal carries than a straight up goal line specialist. By far the players with the least value are the big men who only see the ball on the goal-line. True goal line specialists do not really seem worth a fantasy football play.

At the end of the day running backs should be valued as follows:
1. Primary backs who get goal line carries
2. Top tier secondary backs who rack up yards
3. Top tier goal-line backs
4. Secondary running backs with a shot to put up points in the event of injury
5. Secondary backs who are goal-line specialists

Top 2008 Running Backs
1. DeAngelo Williams
2. Michael Turner
3. Matt Forte
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Thomas Jones
6. Ladainian Tomlinson
7. Steve Slaton
8. Maurice Jones-Drew
9. Clinton Portis
10. Brian Westbrook
11. Chris Johnson
12. Brandon Jacobs
13. Marshawn Lynch
14. Frank Gore
15. Steven Jackson
16. Ronnie Brown
17. Marion Barber
18. Kevin Smith
19. LenDale White
20. Le'Ron McClain
21. Pierre Thomas
22. Ryan Grant
23. Derrick Ward
24. Jonathan Stewart
25. Jamal Lewis

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With preseason games underway and some injuries to muddle things, let's take a look at the latest fantasy football rankings in one expert's mind.

1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
4. Ray Rice
5. Frank Gore
6. Steven Jackson
7. Michael Turner
8. Ryan Grant
9. DeAngelo Williams
10. Rashard Mendenhall
11. Ryan Matthews
12. Knowshon Moreno
13. Jonathan Stewart
14. Beanie Wells
15. Jamaal Charles
16. LeSean McCoy
17. Shonn Greene
18. Matt Forte
19. Cedric Benson
20. Ronnie Brown
21. Pierre Thomas
22. Arian Foster
23. Joseph Addai
24. Clinton Portis
25. Felix Jones
26. CJ Spiller
27. Jahvid Best
28. Marion Barber
29. Justin Forsett
30. Cadillac Williams
31. Ahmad Bradshaw
32. Jerome Harrison
33. Brandon Jacobs
34. Fred Jackson
35. Ricky Williams

-The top four remain the same in standard leagues but I wouldn't argue if someone took Jones-Drew over Peterson in PPR.

-The biggest mover since my first installment was LeSean McCoy up to number 16. This kid has a ton of talent and will be one of the more exciting players in football this year. The TD's may be light due to the presence of Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver but the catches and yards that go with it will more than make up for it.

-I have seen Ryan Matthews ranked as high as number 7 which is crazy to me. The man has yet to play a down in the NFL and I would never take him as a RB 1. Matthews is in a great setting as the main back in a decent offense but dont forget the presence of Darren Sproles who will supplant him on third down, thus cutting down his opportunities.

-I still have DeAngelo Williams ranked over Jonathan Stewart but thats only because he makes more of an impact in the passing game. I still love Stewart and think he is a top RB 2.

-Jamaal Charles took a big dip to number 15 due to the news that Thomas Jones will be the starter once the season gets going. I am a big fan of Charles as I took him as my RB 1 in my money league (with Jonathan Stewart and Matt Forte my 2nd and 3rd backs) and I still think he will haev a big year but maybe not the year we all expected.

-CJ Spiller has passed Fred Jackson in the rankings due to the latter's broken hand but it is possible that Jackson gets back before the opener. If thats the case, than he will be the bPetter player to target.

-Arian Foster moves up to number 22 now that the backfield there looks less muddled with the season ending injurt to Ben Tate. I am in the dark about what Foster can really do but the playing time will be there.

-Keep an eye on Justin Forsett who can make as huge move up the board due to the fact he should get the majority of work in Seattle. Adept at catching the ball, Forsett could be a real find. I nabbed him late in my draft.

-Pierre Thomas is down to 21 with the news that the Saints are actively trying to find a goal line back. That means more TD's stolen from Thomas and thus a drop in his numbers.

That's all for now. Stay tuned for more rankings.

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The NFC and AFC Championship Games are nearing, and that means more fantasy football to devour at RotoPlay. And to help you assemble the most potent roster possible, here is this week's forecast.

(Note: The scoring for this contest covers just this week, as opposed to the other fantasy football playoff contests on RotoPlay, which run through the Super Bowl)

Player 1

1) Drew Brees: Brees blistered the Cardinals for nearly 250 passing yards and three touchdowns last week as New Orleans took a wrecking ball to Arizona's hopes of getting back to the Super Bowl. And despite how dominant the Vikings seemed last week against Dallas, their pass defense was not intimidating during the regular season. Minnesota was 19th in pass defense for the year, and 23rd in passing scores given up. If the Saints' offensive line can keep Brees upright, he could have a monster day.

2) Peyton Manning: In the regular season, the Jets gave up an average of 30 fewer passing yards per game than any other team in the league, and allowed six fewer touchdown passes than any other team. They've been good this postseason as well, picking off three passes and allowing only two touchdowns, but Manning is arguably the best quarterback ever, and he defies those statistics - well, at least to the point where we'll rank him second in this group.

3) Brett Favre: Favre enjoyed the first postseason four-touchdown game of his storied career last week, as the Vikings hammered the Cowboys in every which way. True, one of those was a semi-controversial toss in garbage time at the end of the fourth quarter, but it really only rankled some members of the Dallas Cowboys, and likely their fans (certainly, Favre's postseason fantasy football owners enjoyed it). Really, the only concern with Favre is that he reverts back to his old ways and starts slinging the ball around, especially because the Saints were third in the NFL in interceptions, and have a knack for creating key turnovers.

4) Mark Sanchez: For obvious reasons, Sanchez really shouldn't be considered as an option among the other stalwarts in this group.

Player 2

1) Adrian Peterson: Peterson ran for only 63 yards in Minnesota's blowout win over Dallas last week, continuing a trend that has seen him run for fewer than 100 yards in nine consecutive games. It should be noted, however, than he ran for at least 80 yards in four of those games, and has become an effective weapon as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, having caught at least three passes for at least 40 yards in four of his last five regular season games. The Saints are not particularly torrid in run defense, ranking 21st in the NFL in that statistic in the regular season, and allowed 6.7 yards per carry against the Cardinals last week. The optimist in you may just say he's due for a big game.

2) Pierre Thomas: Thomas overcame a rib injury and ran the ball 13 times for 52 yards against Arizona last week. He also caught four passes for 18 yards, and that's where his value comes into play, especially in this scoring format and against the formidable run defense of the Vikings, who were second in the NFL against the run this season and tied with the Packers for fewest rushing scores allowed.

3) Joseph Addai: Addai isn't a running back that will pile up huge numbers, but he does a little bit of everything. Unfortunately, he hasn't done enough for his postseason fantasy football owners, such as last week's 11-carry, 23-yard performance. Still, he found the end zone frequently this season (13 touchdowns), and he's also caught at least three passes in each of his last five games.

4) Thomas Jones: Though Jones remains the lead back for the Jets in theory, Shonn Greene has seemingly taken over that role in the postseason. Jones has run for only 75 yards on 29 carries with one score in the Jets' two playoff games, and he hasn't caught a single pass.

Player 3

1) Shonn Greene: As mentioned above, Greene has taken the lead for the Jets in the running game. He's had two fabulous outings, running for 135 yards and one touchdown against the Bengals, and 128 yards and one score against the Chargers. Indianapolis was just 24th in the league against the run during the regular season, and Greene had 95 yards against them in Week 16.

2) Reggie Bush: Bush had his best game of the season in terms of total yards last week against the Cardinals, running for 84 yards and one score on five carries, and catching four passes for 24 yards. Maybe it was because Kim Kardashian was in the building, but last week Bush also showed toughness while running the ball, something he hadn't shown much of previously. One of the things holding him back in this scoring format is that he doesn't get many carries, but he's still as explosive a player as a fantasy football owner could ask for.

3) Chester Taylor: Taylor had 23 yards rushing on four carries last week against the Cowboys, and 16 yards on two receptions. When he gets the opportunity, he can make plays, but he simply doesn't get the amount of overall opportunities that you're likely to see from the above options.

4) Donald Brown: Brown only ran the ball six times for 10 yards against the Ravens, though he did have two receptions for 15 yards. Still, the other options in this group are simply sounder than the rookie from UConn.

Player 4

1) Dallas Clark: Clark caught four passes for 57 yards against the Jets in Week 16 before being yanked from the game. In the Colts' win over the Ravens last week, he had seven receptions for 59 yards, marking the third time in four contests he caught exactly seven balls. With receptions so valuable in this scoring format, he's No. 1 in this group. And as good as the Jets are against the pass, Antonio Gates had eight catches for 93 yards in San Diego's loss to New York last week.

2) Sidney Rice: Rice was a monster in Minnesota's dismantling of the Cowboys, catching six passes, half of which went for touchdowns, and accumulating 142 receiving yards. It was his second straight game with six catches for over 100 yards with multiple touchdowns. He's clearly in sync with Brett Favre, and is an outstanding option for obvious reasons.

3) Marques Colston: Colston led his team with six receptions and 83 receiving yards last week against the Cardinals, and he also found the end zone. It was the third time in his last four games (with Week 17 being the exception) that Colston caught at least five passes for at least 75 yards. He's New Orleans' No. 1 target at wide receiver, and thus, an option worth seriously considering.

4) Reggie Wayne: Yes, Vincent Jackson had over 100 receiving yards last week even though Darrelle Revis was covering him, but in a fantasy football format where you have other very good options, we'd simply stay away from the best cornerback in the land.

Player 5

1) Percy Harvin: Harvin wasn't involved much in Minnesota's win over the Cowboys last week, catching only one pass for a single yard and running the ball three times for 23 yards, but you have to believe that will change. That outing was the first time Harvin was in single digits in receiving yards all season, and in what promises to be a high-scoring affair this week, you have to believe the rookie from Florida will be in the mix offensively for the Vikings.

2) Robert Meachem: Like Harvin, Meachem did not figure into his team's offense last week, failing to catch even one pass for the first time since Week 7. Yet also like Harvin, expect him to be a bigger part of his team's offense this week, though he ranks behind the rookie because he hasn't been as consistent throughout the course of the season as Harvin has.

3) Pierre Garcon: Garcon, who did not play against the Jets in Week 16 when New York visited Indy, had five receptions for just 34 yards last week against the Ravens. The Jets are No. 1 against the pass, and even with Darrelle Revis likely covering Reggie Wayne most of the day, Garcon will still have his work cut out for him.

4) Braylon Edwards: Sometimes Edwards has it, sometimes he does not, and last week's two-reception, 41-yard effort against the Chargers did little to inspire confidence that he'd show up this week against the Colts' solid pass defense.

Player 6

1) Jerricho Cotchery: Cotchery has put up solid numbers in the playoffs thus far, with nine receptions for 92 yards in two games, and over the course of the season he's shown himself to be the team's top pass-catching threat. And let's face it - the Jets will have to throw the ball at some point, especially if the Colts get out to an early lead, putting Cotchery, who had four catches for 45 yards against Indy in Week 16, in a position to contribute.

2) Austin Collie: Collie had big numbers against the Jets in their Week 16 match-up, with six catches for 94 yards. That comes with a caveat, however, in that the Colts had pulled most of their players, and Collie was left in, making him the No. 1 option. Still, the rookie has played well down the stretch, including last week when he caught four passes, including one for a touchdown, for 52 yards.

3) Devery Henderson: Henderson showed some of that big-play ability last week that was missing from his game so often during the regular season. He caught a 44-yard touchdown pass as part of a four-reception, 80-yard day, and as one of the Saints' top-three wideouts, has a chance to pick up plenty of fantasy points each week. However, he isn't as consistently on the other end of Drew Brees' passes as you might hope, and receptions are too important in this scoring system to ignore.

4) Bernard Berrian: Berrian is on the outside looking in during most of the Vikings' offensive possessions, and as such he caught only three passes for 32 yards last week. He hasn't caught more than three passes in any of his last four games, and hasn't scored in seven contests. Still, he does have a chance to show up if this game turns into a shootout, so don't completely discount him.

Player 7

1) Visanthe Shiancoe: Shiancoe has proven to be a touchdown machine all season, and figured into the scoring again last week, even though it was his only reception of the game and came at the end of the fourth quarter (upsetting the Cowboys, and linebacker Keith Brooking in particular). But the fact is, he's scored in three consecutive games, so even if he doesn't catch a lot of passes, counting on him to find the end zone is something you can do with confidence.

2) Jeremy Shockey: Shockey caught his first touchdown since Week 6 in New Orleans' playoff win over Arizona last week, and for the game hauled in three passes for 36 yards. However, during the game, he seemed to be favoring the toe injury that had sidelined him at the end of the regular season, which may have hampered his production. If you're confident he's healthy, by all means consider using him because he does give you the ability to pick up points with receptions that Shiancoe may not.

3) Dustin Keller: After scoring just twice in the regular season, Keller scored his second touchdown of the postseason last week against the Chargers. Though he picked up just 19 yards in the contest, he did so on three receptions, which is a solid total in this scoring system. But considering his struggles to find the end zone during the regular season, you have to wonder if he has it in him to score for the third straight game.

4) David Thomas: Thomas had a big role in the Saints' offense when the aforementioned Shockey went down, but with Shockey back in the saddle, Thomas' production waned. He didn't have a catch last week, and is probably not someone you want in your fantasy football lineup this week.

Kicker

1) Ryan Longwell: Longwell made both of his field goal tries last week, and in fact missed only two field goal attempts all season. Despite playing on the road, he'll still be inside a dome, which is a welcome location for all kickers.

2) Garrett Hartley: Hartley is one of those players that falls in the high risk/high reward category. He nailed his only field goal try last week and plays for a robust offense, but on the other hand, he missed most of the season with an injury and does not have much postseason experience, so there's no telling how he'll react.

3) Jay Feely: The Colts allowed more field goals from 40-49 yards than any other NFL team, and that means solid points in this scoring system. Also, the Jets do not carry a potent offense with them into this contest, so field goals could be the order of the day.

4) Matt Stover: During the regular season, the Jets allowed the fifth-fewest field goals in the league, and the fewest extra points. Furthermore, kickers have missed all five field goals attempted against them so far this postseason. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but Stover gets the bottom ranking anyway.

Defense

(Note: We won't rank the defenses, because which team you believe will win will have a lot to do with the defense you select).

- Indianapolis Colts: The Colts' defense isn't superb, but they are facing a Jets team that scored the fewest points among winning teams in each of the two playoff rounds, and have a decided advantage in that they play at home.

- New York Jets: The Jets are tempting, but the Colts have an outstanding offense, and will be difficult to beat at home. Still, if you think they'll upset the Colts, they belong in the top spot.

- New Orleans Saints: The Saints allowed just 14 points to the previously potent Arizona offense in New Orleans' 45-14 beat down last weekend. New Orleans wasn't an imposing defense throughout the season, but they got plenty of turnovers, a formula that worked last week and will likely need to take shape again this week.

- Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota devoured the Dallas offense in every way last week en route to destroying the Cowboys 34-3. The Vikings have a better defense than the Saints statistically, especially against the run, but the Saints are a legitimately great offense, and the home crowd will be thunderous, considering this will be the first time in their history that they'll host an NFC Championship game.

The Chicago Bears (7-6, 6-6-1 ATS) deal with the NFL's best offense when they host the surging New Orleans Saints (7-6, 9-4 ATS) on Thursday Night Football.

Public bettors don't seem too concerned about the Bears' predicament: About 64% of wagers on the spread have come in on Chicago as slight early favorites. That type of action could move the line in the Bears' direction before kickoff, although the numbers could change once wise guys start weighing in on the matchup.

The Saints maintained their stake in the NFC postseason picture with a huge 29-25 victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, as New Orleans covered as 3-point home favorites. Running back Pierre Thomas' 5-yard touchdown run with 5:54 remaining put the Saints ahead for good, while the teams played over the 51.5-point total.

Thomas finished with 102 yards on 16 carries for the Big Easy, who got 106 all-purpose yards with a score from Reggie Bush. Quarterback Drew Brees was an uncharacteristically quiet 18-of-32 for 230 yards with two touchdowns, as the Saints relied on a running game that put up 184 yards - by far a season-high for New Orleans, winners of three of its last four games (4-0 ATS).

The Saints' potent attack could prove problematic for the Bears, who are ranked 28th in the league against the pass at 234.2 yards per game. Behind Brees, New Orleans is first in total offense (405.9 yards per game), first in passing yards per game (310.2), and third in points scored (28.2 PPG). What has kept the Saints from doing even better than their profitable 9-4 ATS record would suggest has been the running game, which is near the bottom of the league at 95.7 yards per game.

Enter Thomas, who is hitting his stride following almost two seasons as the Saints' No. 3 back. The undrafted RB had the best game of his short career in New Orleans' 33-25 loss at Chicago (-1) last December 30, rushing for 105 yards on 20 attempts while hauling in 12 balls for 121 yards through the air with a TD.

It's not as if Thomas has to be the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson for the Saints. If Thomas can combine with Bush to give New Orleans backers some balance like they did last week against the Falcons, life gets a lot easier for Brees and suddenly New Orleans is one of the league's best teams.

Like the Saints, the Bears are on the outside looking in at the NFC playoff picture, although both teams are potentially a few wins away from grabbing a wild card spot. Chicago is coming off a 23-10 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday at Soldier Field, as the Bears rolled to the bank as 6.5-point faves.

QB Kyle Orton was 20-of-34 for 219 yards with two TD passes and an interception, while Devin Hester caught five passes for 80 yards for Chicago. The Bears managed to cruise despite an off-game from RB Matt Forte, who has become Chicago's main offensive weapon in light of Orton's overall poor play since spraining his ankle last month. Forte was held to only 69 yards rushing on 21 attempts, although the Bears defense made up for it by holding the Jaguars to only 159 yards through the air.

New Orleans is dealing with some injuries that might not heal by Thursday night. Cornerback Randall Gay left in the first quarter against Atlanta with a concussion, and is listed as questionable for the game against Chicago. Kick returner Courtney Roby could also sit out after heading for the trainer's table in the third quarter after suffering a right ankle injury.

Outside of Gay and Roby, the bigger question is whether defensive end Will Smith and RB Deuce McAllister will suit up after playing against the Falcons on appeal from the NFLPA. Both Smith and McAllister were handed a four-game suspension for violating the league's anti-doping policy last week, but were cleared to play on Sunday after a federal judge ruled he needed more time to review their respective cases.

Dennis Reynolds

I play cards and bet on sports for a living

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